Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Mixed messages from Plaid Cymru
She says that in their capacities as party leaders, they asserted their desire for self determination, claiming that "Each of our nations has the right to determine its own future, through democratic means and in accordance with the wishes of its people.":
Mr ap Iorwerth passionately disputed during the press conference that this meant a "break-up" of the United Kingdom. He refused to accept the word was appropriate. He is, he said, more positive than that.
Yet his words exposed both the huge gulf between him and the other nationalist politicians in the room and one of the big questions that we don't really know about him. All the leaders said they agree that "Westminster's time is coming to an end", yet there are differences in what they hope might replace it.
Michelle O'Neill and John Swinney very much do want to break up the UK. They want their nations to leave. If they have their way, what's left would just be England and Wales.
Scotland's nationalist leader Swinney is calling for a second Scottish independence referendum by 2031. He says Scotland will vote to leave and Andy Burnham will be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
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But all this just exposes the vagueness and contradictions at the heart of the Plaid First Minister of Wales' position. He's an independence supporting politician who says he's happy to wait for the people of Wales to come round to his way of thinking. He doesn't want a referendum yet. He wants to change what he calls the broken Westminster model. But he hasn't told us what he wants to replace it.
He wouldn't be drawn on a date, or any plan at all for independence, really. It will be up to the Welsh people, he said. When it was put to him that he, as the leader of Wales, is exactly the person to set that agenda, there was no concrete answer.
So what did the Welsh leader have to gain by this event? There were few of us who left who were sure of that.
It is the first time the devolved nations have all had nationalist leaders. An event to mark that makes sense. Some of the narrative makes sense too. They have all long said a variation on "Westminster doesn't work for us".
They all ultimately want the right to set their course, but Rhun ap Iorwerth knows public opinion in Wales is less supportive of outright independence than in the other nations.
Yet instead of pivoting answers to talking about things he might get movement on - like a new funding formula or devolving of policing, for example, the hour or so in that conference room was dominated by something that is not only a distant dream, but one that many in Wales, including some who voted for his party this time around, disagree with.
Rhun ap Iorwerth is close to securing more powers for Wales. If, under his watch, new powers were devolved from Whitehall to Wales, it would be a stick he could beat Labour with for years. When Welsh Labour led the government in Cardiff Bay, it never managed to get agreement on devolving power over policing. Yet he has made progress. Andy Burnham has made positive comments about it.
There are some wondering if this was Rhun ap Iorwerth speaking to those in his party who believe independence should be front and centre, reassuring them that he is on their side while putting any desire for a referendum on ice.
Today he cited polling showing nearly one in three in Wales would vote for independence, but he cannot get away from the fact it is still a minority and far lower than the 55% currently saying they would vote to leave the UK in Scotland.
He has always described himself as a supporter of Welsh independence, but only when Wales is ready . With great success, he took it off the agenda in the Senedd election campaign to a degree that Labour credit it with being one of the main reasons they lost.
So, given his success at changing the narrative around Plaid and preventing his party being presented as a threat to the UK, why did he host this event in Cardiff Bay and allow critics to present him as part of a cabal plotting its breakup?
Essentially, this meeting was a huge distraction for the new Welsh government. It was neither one thing or another as far as Wales was concerned.
As Ruth Mosalski says, throughout the Senedd campaign the First Minister said that his first goal was to show people what a Plaid government can do. However, with the jury still out on what his government has actually achieved on the key issues of health, education, and the cost of living, here he is putting the divisive topic of independence front and centre.
It is little wonder that opponents are saying that Plaid Cymru have betrayed the faith of those who voted for them believing independence was off the table.
It is little wonder that opponents are saying that Plaid Cymru have betrayed the faith of those who voted for them believing independence was off the table.
