Saturday, May 02, 2020
Has Wales failed on testing?
Targets are always problematic. A good target can assist scrutiny, enabling us to test whether the government is performing as it should be. A poor target, one that has been set too far in the future or which is clearly rhetorical - such as we will end all homelessness by 2030 for example - can help a government avoid scrutiny, leaving us with little to measure progress against.
All governments are prone to setting poor targets, the Welsh Government more than most. Does anybody remember the pledge to make all schools fit for purpose by 2010 for example? Or the promise that all social housing would meet the Wales Housing Quality Standard by 2010? And don't get me started on Objective One.
Yesterday we learned that NHS England has hit its target for 100,000 coronavirus tests per day by the end of April. They are also hiring a team of 18,000 people to trace contacts of people with coronavirus when lockdown ends.
There was clearly a large element of spin in this claim, not to mention some dubious statistical sleight of hand - it emerged shortly afterwards that a third of the 122,347 tests included in the final 24-hour period up to the deadline were counted before they had been carried out. Around 39,000 had been sent out to households and satellite testing locations, with no guarantee of the timescale for their completion, but were still included in the count.
Nevertheless, the contrast with Wales is quite stark. Here the Welsh Government had originally planned have capacity to do 9,000 tests a day by the end of April but scrapped those plans after falling short of a mid April target of 5,000.
Scrapping an unachievable target was at least honest, but where does that leave us in being able to effectively scrutinise the Welsh Government's performance? Has Wales failed on testing? The government have made it impossible for us to answer that question.
All governments are prone to setting poor targets, the Welsh Government more than most. Does anybody remember the pledge to make all schools fit for purpose by 2010 for example? Or the promise that all social housing would meet the Wales Housing Quality Standard by 2010? And don't get me started on Objective One.
Yesterday we learned that NHS England has hit its target for 100,000 coronavirus tests per day by the end of April. They are also hiring a team of 18,000 people to trace contacts of people with coronavirus when lockdown ends.
There was clearly a large element of spin in this claim, not to mention some dubious statistical sleight of hand - it emerged shortly afterwards that a third of the 122,347 tests included in the final 24-hour period up to the deadline were counted before they had been carried out. Around 39,000 had been sent out to households and satellite testing locations, with no guarantee of the timescale for their completion, but were still included in the count.
Nevertheless, the contrast with Wales is quite stark. Here the Welsh Government had originally planned have capacity to do 9,000 tests a day by the end of April but scrapped those plans after falling short of a mid April target of 5,000.
Scrapping an unachievable target was at least honest, but where does that leave us in being able to effectively scrutinise the Welsh Government's performance? Has Wales failed on testing? The government have made it impossible for us to answer that question.
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This business about capacity, where does this come from? Is it modelling? Do experts know?Is it a mathematical guess? Does it come from assuming that the facilities are there ready to be used? If the past is anything to go by various Tory Govnts have cut funding (40%) delayed stocking up and not keeping the correct up to date stuff in stock.Result,to me, is that those responsible for implementing testing etc have not got the most up to date records supplies etc,.
At least they had the good sense to admit the problem. Different from the Tories who are 'disingenuous'(lie) about there 100,000 being tested.
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At least they had the good sense to admit the problem. Different from the Tories who are 'disingenuous'(lie) about there 100,000 being tested.
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