Monday, October 08, 2018
A pending climate change disaster
I have been aware of climate change warnings for my entire adult life, so much so that when the Times tells us about a UN report which warns that global carbon dioxide emissions must almost halve within 12 years to avoid a catastrophic loss of coral reefs and Arctic ice, intense floods and droughts, it makes me wonder whether it is now all too late.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us that preventing the worst effects of climate change will require “unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” costing £1.8 trillion a year. The changes include a rapid switch to electric vehicles, huge expansion of renewable energy and closing hundreds of coal-fired power stations.
They go on to recommend that the global average temperature should be limited to 0.5C in addition to the 1C increase that has already occurred since pre-industrial times. It is a report, written by 91 scientists from 40 countries and based on 6,000 scientific papers and yet I have got to the stage whereby I am sceptical that anybody in authority is listening, and if they are whether they are capable of delivering on these changes?
Moving one country in the right direction is hard enough, reforming the practices of 195 in such a short space of time, seems impossible. But what are the consequences if we don't at least try? The Times gives us the scientists' verdict:
A 2C rise would result in the loss of 99 per cent of coral reefs, the disappearance of Arctic ice one summer in ten and the sea level rising an extra 10cm, inundating many coastal communities, the report said. It would also leave twice as many species facing a loss of habitat compared with a rise of 1.5C.
Hundreds of millions of people would be at greater risk of poverty, particularly in Africa, southeast Asia and Central and South America where yields of maize, rice and wheat would decline. It said that global warming was already causing more extreme weather, rising sea levels and loss of Arctic ice.
It calculated that CO2 emissions must fall by 45 per cent on 2010 levels by 2030 and be at “net zero” by 2050 to have “no or limited overshoot of 1.5C”. That means balancing the amount of carbon released by humans by sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Limiting the increase to 2C would require emissions to fall 20 per cent by 2030. This would still be extremely challenging because global emissions rose by 1.6 per cent last year.
The IPCC said that the proportion of global electricity generated by burning coal would have to have fall from about 38 per cent to “close to 0 per cent” by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C. Gas-fired power would have to fall from 23 per cent to 8 per cent.
We are facing a potential global catastrophe. We really need to be doing something about it.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us that preventing the worst effects of climate change will require “unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” costing £1.8 trillion a year. The changes include a rapid switch to electric vehicles, huge expansion of renewable energy and closing hundreds of coal-fired power stations.
They go on to recommend that the global average temperature should be limited to 0.5C in addition to the 1C increase that has already occurred since pre-industrial times. It is a report, written by 91 scientists from 40 countries and based on 6,000 scientific papers and yet I have got to the stage whereby I am sceptical that anybody in authority is listening, and if they are whether they are capable of delivering on these changes?
Moving one country in the right direction is hard enough, reforming the practices of 195 in such a short space of time, seems impossible. But what are the consequences if we don't at least try? The Times gives us the scientists' verdict:
A 2C rise would result in the loss of 99 per cent of coral reefs, the disappearance of Arctic ice one summer in ten and the sea level rising an extra 10cm, inundating many coastal communities, the report said. It would also leave twice as many species facing a loss of habitat compared with a rise of 1.5C.
Hundreds of millions of people would be at greater risk of poverty, particularly in Africa, southeast Asia and Central and South America where yields of maize, rice and wheat would decline. It said that global warming was already causing more extreme weather, rising sea levels and loss of Arctic ice.
It calculated that CO2 emissions must fall by 45 per cent on 2010 levels by 2030 and be at “net zero” by 2050 to have “no or limited overshoot of 1.5C”. That means balancing the amount of carbon released by humans by sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Limiting the increase to 2C would require emissions to fall 20 per cent by 2030. This would still be extremely challenging because global emissions rose by 1.6 per cent last year.
The IPCC said that the proportion of global electricity generated by burning coal would have to have fall from about 38 per cent to “close to 0 per cent” by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C. Gas-fired power would have to fall from 23 per cent to 8 per cent.
We are facing a potential global catastrophe. We really need to be doing something about it.
