Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Welsh Labour MP predicts “we are absolutely doomed”.
The greatest interest though is the view of anonymous Labour MPs as to the way that the Welsh Labour Government has become its own worst enemy. The reference of course, is to the rather bizarre electoral system designed to give maximum control to poltical party bosses and imposed on us without proper consultation, which with the rise of Reform, takes the next Senedd election into uncharted territory,
Welsh Labour's prospects are summed up by one Welsh Labour MP, who is quoted as saying: “You say ‘Welsh Labour’ and people just go. I’ve got a lot of time for Eluned Morgan. If anybody can do it, she can. But is it an insurmountable task?”:
Some in Welsh Labour feel they have been ignored in recent years, not just by the UK government but by their own party at a UK level, with Scottish Labour getting more attention. A key factor is that the former has been more successful, having won every Assembly and Senedd election since 1999, but the aggrieved also say the latter has been seen as the “sexier” of the two autonomous units of UK Labour.
Welsh representatives now warn that the UK Labour leadership is heading for a rude awakening at the next Senedd elections on 7 May 2026. Recent polls show Labour level with – or even slightly behind – Plaid Cymru, which currently has 12 Senedd members (MSs), compared to 30 Labour and 16 Tories. Labour is also level with Reform UK, which has no MSs and just three councillors in Wales; support for the Conservatives has collapsed.
“We’re 18 months away from Senedd elections. We’ve got a Labour government elected now, which we are working with far more effectively than we were able to with the previous Conservative government. That’s beginning to make a big difference,” says Mick Antoniw, Labour MS for Pontypridd.
“Of course, the other side of that is a lot of media attention where you’ve had issues around the winter fuel allowance, the farming inheritance issue and so on. Politics is incredibly volatile.”
Getting the most electorally difficult policies out of the way early in a UK Labour government’s term is unfortunate timing for the party in devolved assemblies, where elections are being held mid-term from a Westminster perspective. The two big controversies around winter fuel payments and inheritance tax paid by farmers are particularly challenging in Wales, where there is an older population and a strong farming sector.
Running on a “change” platform would be tough in Wales, where Labour has always governed, one of Welsh Labour’s new MPs points out. Instead, the message to Welsh voters in 2026 will be that “having a Labour government at both ends of the M4 is important”.
The rows between devolved administrations and the UK government have been fierce in recent years. “Surely it’s better for Welsh Labour to suck up to the UK than have the governments clashing,” the MP says. “That’s why it’s so important we deliver. It’s all about delivery.”
Others worry that double incumbency will see the international trend of voters punishing incumbents hit Labour hard in Wales. “People are feeling very let down by Keir,” says the first anonymous Welsh Labour MP, adding: “Welsh Labour is a complete shitshow.”
“It’s like Brexit all over again, isn’t it? Kicking back against the system,” they continue. “The Reform thing is real. We need to seriously, seriously, wake up to it.” The MP predicts that in areas like Llanelli, where Reform came just 1,500 votes behind Labour in July, “we are absolutely doomed”.
If the Welsh Government can't convince their own MPs then what chance do they have with the electorate.
