Could Labour lose control of the Senedd?

Whisper it softly, Labour could well end up out of government at the next Senedd elections.

That at least is the verdict of one Welsh academic, who says that there is a real possibility that a midterm slump in support for Labour at the UK level could augur the unthinkable, namely an election in Wales in which Labour does not emerge as the largest party.

In the Guardian, Richard Wyn Jones argues that Vaughan Gething's resignation in the midst of a donations scandal in which no rules were broken, and a mishandled ministerial sacking, combined with a poor General Election performance in Wales where opposition parties demonstrated some positive electoral momentum, could help form a perfect storm that, combined with a mid term UK government slump, will throw Labour out of power in Cardiff Bay in 2026.

He argues that any new Welsh Labour leader will need to repair shattered relations among Labour members in the Senedd:

Having rubbed along pretty well together for the first quarter-century of devolution – for example, sidestepping most of the psychodrama associated with the Corbyn era – the ruling Labour group has transformed over the past few weeks and months into something altogether less wholesome. It is far from clear how the divisions that now exist can be bridged.

Less obviously, but just as importantly, the new first minister will also need to reckon with Welsh Labour MPs in Westminster whose overall attitude to their Senedd colleagues is characterised by condescension that shades into animosity. Both the attitude and influence of these MPs was apparent in Labour’s recent general election manifesto which, while promising extensive further devolution within England, offered nothing of substance to Wales. There was, for example, no pledge to devolve the crown estate let alone the failing criminal justice system, as supported by the Welsh government and the wider Welsh Labour party. Since gaining power in London, we have also seen Labour engaging in a startlingly quick “reverse ferret” on securing what it had previously termed “fair funding” for Wales. Having once enthusiastically argued the case for Wales to receive substantial additional funding in lieu of spending on HS2 in England, Jo Stevens – the secretary of state for Wales and, in effect, shop steward for Welsh MPs – is now downplaying the relevance of that scheme.

The attitude of Stevens would appear to be that, from now on, the Welsh government should be seen and not heard. It’s time for the grownups in Whitehall to take the leading role. One of the problems with this view is that Labour faces a tricky Senedd election in May 2026. In the past, the Welsh Labour party has succeeded at the devolved level by presenting itself as a party willing to “stand up for Wales” no matter which party is in charge in Westminster. If this approach is no longer tenable or acceptable to Labour at the London level, then this radically reduces the room for manoeuvre for Gething’s successor.

Which bring us to the final and perhaps most difficult challenge that she or he will face, namely what would appear to be the increasingly jaded attitudes of the Welsh electorate. Labour’s very recent electoral triumph in Wales conceals a much more worrisome prospect as thoughts now turn to the next Senedd election. While the party won 84% of Welsh constituencies, it did so while securing only 37% of the vote – a 4% reduction on its 2019 performance and a historically low proportion of the UK general election vote for Welsh Labour.

This was also an election in which – from a Labour perspective – both Reform and Plaid Cymru appeared to have developed a worrying degree of momentum. Given that Labour support is always significantly lower in devolved elections – elections fought using a much more proportional system – there is now a real possibility that a midterm slump in support for Labour at the UK level could augur the unthinkable, namely an election in Wales in which Labour does not emerge as the largest party.

Such an outcome would herald devolution coming of age, at last. However, there is still a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we get there.