Decision day?

It has been a long journey and it may not yet be over. However there is the possibility of closure this morning as the Plaid Cymru group meet to choose between two programmes for government.

It is unlikely to be policy that decides it. Plaid will be making a political decision on whether to lead a government and break Labour's historic hegemony or to be part of a potential realignment of the nationalist left, as Adam Price would have it. Both programmes have problems with deliverability and no doubt that will influence Plaid AMs in their choice as well.

The Labour group approved the coalition yesterday and were quickly joined by the Wales Laboour Party Executive in their affirmation. Talk in the tearooms suggested that five Labour AMs voted against and there was even a suggestion that these dissidents were summoned to the headmasters office to explain themselves. Rumours also abound that the Labour group imposed some conditions to their approval and that this led to some very long Plaid faces around the Assembly offices. We shall see.

All the media are predicting a knife-edge vote and that certainly backs up my instincts. On the assumption that even the merest slight might influence the outcome the Western Mail carries news of a leaked pre-election Labour strategy document in which Plaid Cymru are described as 'a shambles which could not run a cockle stall, let alone a country.' The document sets out the strategy that Labour used during the Assembly election, which in itself could hardly be termed a success. It is unlikely to have much impact on Plaid's decision today.

Radio Wales has just reported that they believe that eight of the 15 strong Plaid group back a coalition with Labour. They have also speculated that Ieuan Wyn Jones will see the way the tide is flowing and jump aboard that particular ship so as to avoid a damaging split in his group. How many more twists and turns can be left in this saga?