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Thursday, October 01, 2026

So many questions over Burnham's agenda

For a Liberal, Andy Burnham's commitment to work closer with EU. possibly by rejoining the single market or even the EU itself, his support of proportional representation and his pledge to bring in free social care is like catnip. However, we should not put all our hopes on the contents of one speech and numerous press briefings without some detail.

For a start, what form of proportional representation is being proposed? What is the timescale and will there have to be another plebiscite before we can proceed? Just another commission, no real commitment. 

And what exactly is being proposed regarding the EU and the single market? How long will it take to make progress on this promise?

The biggest questions though relate to how Burnham is proposing to pay for his new National Care Service. The Times reports that Andy Burnham has admitted there may be a “shortfall” in his plans to fund a new national care service as economists warned he would have to raise taxes to cover the cost.

They say that Burnham told Times Radio he wanted to introduce the new service, which would be free at the point of use, “as soon as possible” even though the savings found by scrapping the triple lock will not be fully realised until 2040:

Speaking after his conference speech in Liverpool, Burnham said: “It will be fully funded. That’s what I was saying today. That when we do introduce it, it will be fully funded, and we’ll obviously make those proposals next year.”

Burnham announced plans to adjust the triple lock from April 2030. Economists said he would still have to raise either income tax or national insurance in the short term to fund the new care service, which will cover the cost of personal care but not residential accommodation or food. The service is expected to cost up to £18bn a year.

Pressed on whether other funding would be needed before the savings built up, Burnham said: “I will put a plan before the country at the next general election, where we say this is our national care service, this is how we will fund it.

“The decision on the triple lock, the adjustment, and it is an adjustment — it’s not getting rid of the whole concept of the triple lock — this releases this much. The NHS truly will be able to make savings … from a better social care system.

“And then if there’s a shortfall, well, we’d have to be honest about that shortfall and say where that money is coming.”

In his speech, Burnham ruled out funding the service through borrowing, leaving him with only the option of tax rises in the interim.

The government said savings from the pension changes would reach about £15bn by 2040, but did not give a figure for the cost of the service.

Burnham said Baroness Casey of Blackstock’s review would examine the options for its design and timing.

Asked how he could guarantee the funding, he said: “There are options to do it. You could, obviously if you wanted, put the time back, the date back by which the service comes in, because the triple lock decision will release billions more money as we go through the next decade. So there’s obviously a timing question there.”

I suppose we are going to have to wait before we get more clarity, but how the uncertaintly and the growing number of questions will hit Labour's ratings will have to be seen.

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