Friday, April 10, 2026
The bleak prospects for our future cost of living
The paper says that Graeme Downie, a Labour MP who sits on the energy select committee, has warned it “will still take a long time for prices to return to normal” and the full impact of the crisis on the cost of living could be felt “until 2027/28 at least”:
His comments follow warnings from experts and industry figures that the two-week ceasefire – which is already in jeopardy as Iran threatens to cancel the deal over Israel’s attacks on Lebanon – is not long enough to see any benefit for the UK economy.
The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped on Wednesday as news of the ceasefire emerged, but it remains significantly higher than before the conflict and sustained high oil and gas prices will see the costs of fuel, food and heating rise.
Speaking to The Independent, Mr Downie, the Labour MP for Dunfermline and Dollar, warned: “This isn’t going to be a short-lived problem that will now go away. It will still take a long time for prices to return to normal and we need to prevent a rocket and feather situation – where prices have risen very quickly but only fall very slowly.”
He noted that the impact of the Strait of Hormuz being shut down before the ceasefire had hit the price of fertiliser, which means food costs will likely rise next year as the knock-on effects of production run through the agricultural system to the supermarkets.
“There have been delays to different products like fertiliser and you’ve got the damage to the LNG [liquid natural gas] plant in Qatar that’s knocked its production down and could take years to repair,” he added.
“I think the effects of this will be felt until 2027/28 at least.”
New polling by Ipsos UK has revealed that economic anxiety from the war continues to dominate the public mood, with 86 per cent concerned over the impact of the conflict on the price of fuel and energy, while four in five (80 per cent) Britons are concerned about the availability of fuel. Around three in five are concerned about the availability of wider goods, such as food, toiletries and medical supplies.
Mr Downie added: “It’s also brought into focus that our own energy security is not where we need it to be. I think this government’s taking a lot of the right decisions on grid upgrade, on renewables, on your home energy.
“I think we’re doing all the right things, but we need to move faster – what we have done helps us in the next crisis, not this one, because these things take time."
This war is going to have a much wider impact, but it is individual families who will suffer the most.
