Are Starmer's defence spending promises enough?

The Independent reports on a warning by former defence leaders that Britain’s armed forces have been “hollowed out by years of chronic underfunding”.

The paper says that an open letter to the prime minister, signed by three ex-defence secretaries, retired senior military chiefs, and former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, argues that the UK faces a “1936 moment”, with global conflict likely amid rising tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

The letter, published in The Telegraph, calls for defence spending to reach 5 per cent of GDP.

This contrasts with Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to increase it to 2.5 per cent next year and 3 per cent after the next election.

“Our actions fall dangerously short of matching this rhetoric and of meeting our treaty obligations,” the letter reads.

“We are deluding ourselves if we believe Russia and our other adversaries are unaware of this.”

The letter says the UK is ‘deluded’ to think that adversaries aren’t aware of defence budget shortfalls
The government has yet to publish its delayed defence investment plan (DIP), setting out how it will meet its commitments.

The prime minister’s spokesperson insisted on Monday that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) was working “flat-out” to deliver the plan “as soon as possible”.

The open letter urged Sir Keir to “commit now to a bold, credible and measurable path to spending 5 per cent of GDP on core defence, providing the certainty our Armed Forces, industry, and our long-standing allies need to deter aggression and secure Britain’s future”.

“You must recognise that we are facing our 1936 moment: global conflict is highly likely if we don’t invest in deterrence now.”

In January, Downing Street refused to deny reports that the MoD faces a shortfall of up to £28bn amid suggestions that a budget black hole had prompted Sir Keir to order an overhaul of the investment plan.

“Recent reports highlight that your Government appears in denial over a stark reality: The Ministry of Defence faces a £28 billion shortfall over the coming years simply to make Britain’s Armed Forces ‘war-ready,’” the letter read.

“This gap—equivalent to nearly half the MoD’s annual budget—threatens to leave our forces under-equipped and overstretched at a time when readiness, already a weakness, is paramount.”

None of this explains where the money is going to come from to meet even Starmer's promises, never mind the sort of expenditure demanded by this letter. Let's hope that the next budget event starts to explain how these objectives will be met.