Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Welsh Labour's hidden weakness
We have already seen an implosion in the Senedd, with the First Minister being forced out by his own colleagues, Boris-Johnson-style, and there is no doubt that this, combined with Labour's inability to get to grips with public services, is going to hit them badly in the polls, but it is the long-term electoral trends, heavily disguised by the first-past-the-post system that could really hit Labour for a six.
As the Guardian points out, although Welsh Labour won its 28th general election in a row this month, the results effectively sealed Mr Gething’s fate:
On the surface, the Tories were routed in Wales, losing all 14 MPs. Yet this disguises the fragmentation of politics in the country. On the right of politics, the Conservatives haemorrhaged votes to Reform. While Labour’s vote share increased by 1.6% across the UK, in Wales it fell by 3.9% – with the nationalist Plaid Cymru and the Greens eating into the leftwing vote and increasing their shares by 4.9% and 3.7% respectively.
Labour’s landslide is a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system. If the poll had been held under proportional representation, Labour would have probably only won 12 out of 32 seats in Wales. The problem for Mr Gething – and Welsh Labour – is that the 2026 Senedd elections will take place using a PR system that reflects the share of the vote each party has received in constituencies that map onto current parliamentary boundaries.
Labour currently holds half the seats in the Welsh parliament, but on its current polling might only end up with a third of them in two years’ time. This might not be bad news. The devolved parliament was set up so that politics would be conducted consensually. There’s a lot to be said for a more pluralistic form of governance. But Labour would prefer not to be weakened further. This is a distinct possibility unless the party can elect a new leader who can command public confidence, win the backing of their own members and work with opposition parties.
They conclude that the tensions between the devolved government in Cardiff and Westminster require creative dealmaking, rather than meek deference, to resolve:
The NHS in Wales is in a terrible state and urgently needs money from the Treasury. Sir Keir Starmer’s team is reluctant to accede to demands from Welsh Labour to devolve criminal justice. Yet the developments that have occurred in Wales since devolution – political disengagement, the rise of the far right, the vote for Brexit – reveal a political settlement in need of urgent repair.
The question is whether Welsh Labour are capable of carrying out that repair.
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The LibDems achieved great things at the election for championing the NHS and social care. Is it not time for the party to be more vocal and campaign on these issues in Wales?. By campaigning this way in 2026 some more Senedd seats could come the parties way.
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