Monday, July 24, 2023
The fallout from Uxbridge and South Ruislip
One of the advantages of following an election count from the west coast of Canada is that you don't lose any sleep, as the declaration tends to come around the time of evening dinner. Nevertheless, the result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was unexpected, especially in light of the huge Tory majorities being overturned elsewhere.
On reflection, it looks like Labour really screwed up their campaign in Uxbridge, allowing themselves to be skewered on the single issue of the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone being implemented by the London Labour Mayor. This was despite the fact that the extension was mandated by the Tory Secretary of State for Transport.
The big question now for all the political parties is how they react to this result. Do they review the way that they try to promote their green policies to the general public, or do they accept that some measures may be unpopular and abandon them altogether, irrespective of their importance to tackling climate change?
The indications are that both Labour and the Tories are choosing the second option. The Independent reports that Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has said that the mayor should “reflect” on the ULEZ policy in the wake of the loss in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, while some in the governing Conservative Party want to slow down even more, with a right-wing group of Conservative lawmakers, the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, saying the date for banning new petrol vehicles should be moved to 2035 or later:
U.K. greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 46% from 1990 levels, mainly because of the almost complete removal of coal from electricity generation. The government had pledged to reduce emissions by 68% of 1990 levels by 2030, to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars the same year, and to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
But with just seven years to go until the first goalpost, the government’s climate advisers said last month that the pace of action is “worryingly slow.”
Nevertheless, a debate is underway:
Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said “getting rid of unpopular, expensive green policies” would be a vote-winner for the party, which is trailing well behind Labour in opinion polls. A national election is due by the end of 2024.
Housing Secretary Michael Gove told the Sunday Telegraph that a measure requiring landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rental accommodation was “asking too much, too quickly” and should be delayed by several years.
Other senior Tories urged the government to stick to its guns. Lawmaker Chris Skidmore, the government’s net zero watchdog, said it would be an “abdication of responsible government” if ministers “play politics” with environmental policies.
Alok Sharma, a former Conservative government minister who served as president of the U.N.’s COP26 climate summit in 2021, tweeted: “Given the economic, environmental and electoral case for climate action it would be self-defeating for any political party to seek to break the political consensus on this vital agenda.”
We cannot afford to let up on the pace of reform, but it is important that we take people with us. Perhaps the debate should focus on that rather than abandoning policies altogether.
On reflection, it looks like Labour really screwed up their campaign in Uxbridge, allowing themselves to be skewered on the single issue of the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone being implemented by the London Labour Mayor. This was despite the fact that the extension was mandated by the Tory Secretary of State for Transport.
The big question now for all the political parties is how they react to this result. Do they review the way that they try to promote their green policies to the general public, or do they accept that some measures may be unpopular and abandon them altogether, irrespective of their importance to tackling climate change?
The indications are that both Labour and the Tories are choosing the second option. The Independent reports that Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has said that the mayor should “reflect” on the ULEZ policy in the wake of the loss in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, while some in the governing Conservative Party want to slow down even more, with a right-wing group of Conservative lawmakers, the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, saying the date for banning new petrol vehicles should be moved to 2035 or later:
U.K. greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 46% from 1990 levels, mainly because of the almost complete removal of coal from electricity generation. The government had pledged to reduce emissions by 68% of 1990 levels by 2030, to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars the same year, and to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
But with just seven years to go until the first goalpost, the government’s climate advisers said last month that the pace of action is “worryingly slow.”
Nevertheless, a debate is underway:
Conservative lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg said “getting rid of unpopular, expensive green policies” would be a vote-winner for the party, which is trailing well behind Labour in opinion polls. A national election is due by the end of 2024.
Housing Secretary Michael Gove told the Sunday Telegraph that a measure requiring landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rental accommodation was “asking too much, too quickly” and should be delayed by several years.
Other senior Tories urged the government to stick to its guns. Lawmaker Chris Skidmore, the government’s net zero watchdog, said it would be an “abdication of responsible government” if ministers “play politics” with environmental policies.
Alok Sharma, a former Conservative government minister who served as president of the U.N.’s COP26 climate summit in 2021, tweeted: “Given the economic, environmental and electoral case for climate action it would be self-defeating for any political party to seek to break the political consensus on this vital agenda.”
We cannot afford to let up on the pace of reform, but it is important that we take people with us. Perhaps the debate should focus on that rather than abandoning policies altogether.
Comments:
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Sir Keir's reaction and later official response are not promising. Metropolitan air pollution impacts the quality of life and can be a killer. The worst off tend to be the worst sufferers.
FAO Jacob Rees-Mogg and other "Me, Now" climate change deniers:
Drive, cruise and fly.
Too soon you will die.
Unfortunately, so will everyone else.
Jim Dapre
Drive, cruise and fly.
Too soon you will die.
Unfortunately, so will everyone else.
Jim Dapre
Many comments on the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election result and the effect of ULEZ expansion on it miss the point. Unlike Khan's decision to expand the original Johnson ULEZ proposal from the Central London congestion charging zone to the North and South Circular Roads, where he gave residents a two-and-a-half year warning of the introduction, the further extension to the boundary of Greater London will come in just nine months after it was first announced.
Furthermore, TfL has grossly underestimated the number of cars in Outer London that are non-compliant. They claim it is less than 10%, but evidence provided to New Statesman magazine by Experian shows that over 21% of cars registered to addresses in U&SR are non-compliant. TfL could have used these data, but chose to rely on its own inadequate assessment. Lib Dem Assembly Member Hina Bokari proposed a doubling of the funding set aside for replacing these old vehicles at the GLA but the proposal was squashed by the Mayor.
So we have a combination of a rushed introduction combined with inadequate compensation. Also I was talking to one of my near-neighbours who runs a small business and had bought a new diesel van just a few months before the Euro 6 rules came into force. He now has had to replace it but, because the replacement van is second-hand he is not eligible for compensation which only applies to those businesses buying new vehicles.
Sadiq Khan knows that the great majority of his support comes from Inner London, but his unfair treatment of those living in Outer London may yet rebound on him if the anti-ULEZ Tory candidate wins the mayoralty and scraps ULEZ entirely.
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Furthermore, TfL has grossly underestimated the number of cars in Outer London that are non-compliant. They claim it is less than 10%, but evidence provided to New Statesman magazine by Experian shows that over 21% of cars registered to addresses in U&SR are non-compliant. TfL could have used these data, but chose to rely on its own inadequate assessment. Lib Dem Assembly Member Hina Bokari proposed a doubling of the funding set aside for replacing these old vehicles at the GLA but the proposal was squashed by the Mayor.
So we have a combination of a rushed introduction combined with inadequate compensation. Also I was talking to one of my near-neighbours who runs a small business and had bought a new diesel van just a few months before the Euro 6 rules came into force. He now has had to replace it but, because the replacement van is second-hand he is not eligible for compensation which only applies to those businesses buying new vehicles.
Sadiq Khan knows that the great majority of his support comes from Inner London, but his unfair treatment of those living in Outer London may yet rebound on him if the anti-ULEZ Tory candidate wins the mayoralty and scraps ULEZ entirely.
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