Peter Black

In contrast to England, the Welsh council seats being fought this year were last contested five years ago, in 2017. At that time, Jeremy Corbyn was at the height of his unpopularity, and the Tories were riding high in the polls, with Theresa May poised to plunge her party into a misguided and disastrous General Election.

The base from which the opposition parties approached this year’s elections, therefore, was not a very healthy one. In 2017, Welsh Labour had lost 112 seats and a number of councils to no overall control. In contrast, the Tories had gained 79 seats and consolidated their hold on Monmouthshire. Plaid Cymru gained 38 seats.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats had emerged from the 2017 council elections with just 59 councillors. 10 down on the previous election. It was not a good year for us, as the long, slow recovery from the Clegg coalition years continued to hamper our efforts.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats performance in Wales has always lagged behind our neighbours on the other side of Offa’s Dyke, simply because we have had to compete with a better resourced nationalist party for protest and centre-ground voters.

Other differences with England this time, included the enfranchisement of 16- and 17-year-olds, and early voting experiments in some areas. Parties no longer needed to secure 10 signatures on each nomination, which made it much easier to get candidates in place quickly.

We also appeared to be much better organised, with Powys in particular, at last coming into its own. In the past, we have held parliamentary and Senedd seats in Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire without paying too much attention to our local government base, and we paid the price.

This time we got candidates in place across the county and campaigned effectively. It made a real difference and will hopefully help us recapture those seats in the future.

With 1,232 seats and 22 councils up for grabs it was essential that the Welsh Liberal Democrats put up a good showing, however at close of nominations we only had 284 candidates, slightly up on last time, exposing the fact that we remain weak and disorganised in many parts of Wales.

As campaigning got underway, a number of trends emerged. Firstly, the Tories were struggling, more so even than they were in England. Their net loss of 86 seats was proportionally worse than elsewhere in the UK, losing 40% of their Welsh council seats altogether, and their failure to hold onto Monmouthshire was a major blow. This was especially so, as the council leader had been openly critical of Boris Johnson, which he had hoped would provide some protection.

Labour benefitted from the Welsh identify carved out by their First Minister, evidenced by the distinct approach taken by the Welsh Government during the pandemic. Their net gain of 67 seats was actually better than their performance in any of the other nations, both numerically and proportionally, and they regained two councils from no overall control.

However, they failed to retake all the seats they lost in 2017 and saw Neath Port Talbot, a flagship Welsh council, fall to no overall control. On balance their results fell short of a general election winning position, and highlighted continuing disillusion with them, with Keir Starmer and with politics in general, in a country dominated by Labour.

Plaid Cymru certainly took comfort from the fact that they were able to take majority control of three more councils, taking their number up to four, but this was very much a heartland consolidation. In fact the nationalists had a net loss of six seats and struggled to make an impact outside of the Welsh-speaking west.

For the Welsh Liberal Democrats, these elections were very much a curate’s egg. We made a net gain of eleven seats (the first net gain since 2008) and became the largest party in Powys (at last) with 24 councillors. We also made gains in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Neath Port Talbot, and Swansea, taking seats from Labour in the last two authorities.

I am pleased to say that in my own authority of Swansea, we increased our group size from seven to eleven, to become the official opposition in our own right. However, it was not such a rosy picture elsewhere.

We lost ground in Cardiff and Newport, and were effectively wiped out in Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, and Monmouthshire. There are a number of councils such as Carmarthenshire, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen and the Vale of Glamorgan, where we continue to have no representation.

In the whole of South East Wales, we now have just one councillor, while our weakness in other parts of Wales underlines organisational and political issues that we have failed to address.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have once more been pushed back to our heartland areas in rural mid-Wales. Some success in urban areas like Swansea and Cardiff do not compensate for the fact that electorally, at least, we can no longer claim to be a Wales-wide force.

If we are to change that then there needs to be much more focus on rebuilding organisations, recruiting members and candidates, and instituting all-year round campaigning in what are effectively black-hole areas. We have to start now if we are to make an impact in future elections.