Wednesday, October 14, 2020
UK Government no longer following scientific advice
It is actually very unlikely that any of the governments in the UK have been following scientific advice to the letter over how to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic, but that has not stopped all of them from using scientists as a shield for the unpopular decisions they have had to make.
The fact is that every decision that has been made has been political, and has been based on a number of factors, including science, economics and pure politics. The problem that ministers now face is that this has beecome more transparent in recent days and as a result the government have lost their scapegoats for when things go wrong.
Boris Johnson was late in enforcing the lockdown in March, with the result that more people died than needed to, now he appears to have repeated that error. The Mirror reports that the government's scientific advisors officially recommended an urgent two-week 'circuit break' lockdown three weeks ago, but that this advice was not adhered to by Ministers:
Documents slipped out by the government show scientists were urging Boris Johnson to go further than the three-tier local lockdown system he announced today.
The Prime Minister today announced restrictions on household contact and travel and shut pubs that don't serve food in the worst 'Tier 3' area.
Yet at a No10 press conference tonight, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty admitted the standard Tier 3 measures in England do not go far enough on their own.
Now bombshell papers - quietly published on the government's website moments after the press conference - show how much further SAGE asked the PM to go.
In a meeting on September 21, the group said a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown across the whole of England was one of a shortlist of five measures that "should be considered for immediate introduction".
SAGE said a circuit-breaker of perhaps two to three weeks was "likely to have similar levels of effectiveness as national lockdown in Spring" and bring the R below 1, albeit only temporarily.
"Modelling suggests that 14 days of significant reduction in transmission in October could put the epidemic back 28 days and could significantly reduce the prevalence of infection in December," SAGE added.
“The amount of ‘time gained’ is highly dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the measures introduced, the more time gained.”
SAGE did not call for all five changes to be taken at once but warned: "A package of interventions will need to be adopted to prevent this exponential rise in cases. Single interventions are unlikely to be able to reduce incidence. If schools are to remain open, then a wide range of other measures will be required."
A gulf has opened up between Ministers and the experts, and the government appears to be floundering.
Boris Johnson was late in enforcing the lockdown in March, with the result that more people died than needed to, now he appears to have repeated that error. The Mirror reports that the government's scientific advisors officially recommended an urgent two-week 'circuit break' lockdown three weeks ago, but that this advice was not adhered to by Ministers:
Documents slipped out by the government show scientists were urging Boris Johnson to go further than the three-tier local lockdown system he announced today.
The Prime Minister today announced restrictions on household contact and travel and shut pubs that don't serve food in the worst 'Tier 3' area.
Yet at a No10 press conference tonight, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty admitted the standard Tier 3 measures in England do not go far enough on their own.
Now bombshell papers - quietly published on the government's website moments after the press conference - show how much further SAGE asked the PM to go.
In a meeting on September 21, the group said a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown across the whole of England was one of a shortlist of five measures that "should be considered for immediate introduction".
SAGE said a circuit-breaker of perhaps two to three weeks was "likely to have similar levels of effectiveness as national lockdown in Spring" and bring the R below 1, albeit only temporarily.
"Modelling suggests that 14 days of significant reduction in transmission in October could put the epidemic back 28 days and could significantly reduce the prevalence of infection in December," SAGE added.
“The amount of ‘time gained’ is highly dependent on how quickly the epidemic is growing – the faster the growth or stricter the measures introduced, the more time gained.”
SAGE did not call for all five changes to be taken at once but warned: "A package of interventions will need to be adopted to prevent this exponential rise in cases. Single interventions are unlikely to be able to reduce incidence. If schools are to remain open, then a wide range of other measures will be required."
A gulf has opened up between Ministers and the experts, and the government appears to be floundering.
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Are the Govnt now floundering cos their authoritarian attitude of ruling, WE KNOW BEST, is showing cracks as reality creeps in?
Is it not time that THE WORLDS govnts worked TOGETHER to crack the virus. The virus is ONE. The worlds govnts are many. The virus can therefore divide and conquer making the battle longerr to defeat it.
IS IT NOT TIME THAT WE ALSO REALISED THAT THE HUMAN RACE IS ONE SINGLE ENTITY?
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Is it not time that THE WORLDS govnts worked TOGETHER to crack the virus. The virus is ONE. The worlds govnts are many. The virus can therefore divide and conquer making the battle longerr to defeat it.
IS IT NOT TIME THAT WE ALSO REALISED THAT THE HUMAN RACE IS ONE SINGLE ENTITY?
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