Friday, August 14, 2020
Lies, damned lies and statistics
The phrase lies, damned lies and statistics, was popularised by Mark Twain, but its origins are lost in the mists of time. Nevertheless, it remains true today as ever, and more so when applied to the UK Government's claims on testing for COVID-19.
The Guardian reports that UK Ministers have quietly removed 1.3m coronavirus tests from its data because of double counting, raising fresh questions about the accuracy of the testing figures:
In the government’s daily coronavirus update on Wednesday, it announced it had lowered the figure for “tests made available” by about 10% and discontinued the metric.
An update on the page read: “An adjustment of -1,308,071 has been made to the historic data for the ‘tests made available’ metric. The adjustments have been made as a result of more accurate data collection and reporting processes recently being adopted within pillar 2.”
The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the changes affected data reported between 14 May and 12 August. It said there had been “a double-counting of test kits that had been dispatched”, “which had not been removed from the lab’s processed data”.
The changes were made after it was discovered fewer in-person pillar 2 tests had been carried out than originally reported, while more tests had been sent to NHS trusts and care homes. The problem was acknowledged by the DHSC on 6 July but the tests were removed from the data on 12 August.
Pillar 2 tests involve all testing done outside hospitals through commercial companies. For example, swab tests carried out at satellite testing centres, such as care homes, and home swab testing kits delivered by post.
In truth, the testing regime has been shambolic from the start, with targets being missed and figures manipulated to give the illusion of efficacy. It does not help that this revision has come about because of the recall of up to 750,000 unused coronavirus testing kits manufactured by the diagnostics company Randox, due to concerns about safety standards.
Transparency has been missing throughout on this whole testing endeavour, and that is not good enough.
The Guardian reports that UK Ministers have quietly removed 1.3m coronavirus tests from its data because of double counting, raising fresh questions about the accuracy of the testing figures:
In the government’s daily coronavirus update on Wednesday, it announced it had lowered the figure for “tests made available” by about 10% and discontinued the metric.
An update on the page read: “An adjustment of -1,308,071 has been made to the historic data for the ‘tests made available’ metric. The adjustments have been made as a result of more accurate data collection and reporting processes recently being adopted within pillar 2.”
The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the changes affected data reported between 14 May and 12 August. It said there had been “a double-counting of test kits that had been dispatched”, “which had not been removed from the lab’s processed data”.
The changes were made after it was discovered fewer in-person pillar 2 tests had been carried out than originally reported, while more tests had been sent to NHS trusts and care homes. The problem was acknowledged by the DHSC on 6 July but the tests were removed from the data on 12 August.
Pillar 2 tests involve all testing done outside hospitals through commercial companies. For example, swab tests carried out at satellite testing centres, such as care homes, and home swab testing kits delivered by post.
In truth, the testing regime has been shambolic from the start, with targets being missed and figures manipulated to give the illusion of efficacy. It does not help that this revision has come about because of the recall of up to 750,000 unused coronavirus testing kits manufactured by the diagnostics company Randox, due to concerns about safety standards.
Transparency has been missing throughout on this whole testing endeavour, and that is not good enough.
