Wednesday, April 03, 2019
Is a no deal Brexit inevitable?
As Parliament and the cabinet remain deadlocked on how best to deliver the so-called 'will of the people' and take us out of the EU, it is becoming apparent that the threat of us leaving without a deal, is no longer a negotiating tactic by Theresa May, but a real possibility.
Unfortunately for May, nobody took her threat seriously, reckoning that if faced with the possibility of us crashing over the cliff, deal-less and friendless, she would bottle it and seek an extension to the deadline she herself set down in legislation. Events have proved those doubters correct, as May did indeed ask for extra time, and is now about to do so again.
Our problem is that public opinion is hardening. Whereas a clear majority have become so fed up with the whole affair that they would rather forget we were even asked our opinion, and prefer to stay in the EU, those who continue to agitate for us to leave are now becoming convinced that no deal is the only way to achieve this. They may be right.
It is worth noting the words of Britain's most senior civil servant, therefore. He has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit. As the Independent reports, Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, has told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.
He told ministers that direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust:
He said the consequences of no deal would be "more severe" in Northern Ireland than elsewhere, adding: "The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule."
And raising the prospect of law and order breaking down, Sir Mark said none of government's "mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones...the UK would be less safe as a result."
He continued: "Our national security would be disrupted....The stability of the union would be dislocated."
The cabinet secretary said the economy would suffer the worst recession since 2008, with the subsequent fall in the value of the pound likely to be "more harmful" than in 2008 because it would affect only the UK and not other countries.
Those advocating a no deal Brexit as a way out of this mess really need to be careful what they wish for.
Unfortunately for May, nobody took her threat seriously, reckoning that if faced with the possibility of us crashing over the cliff, deal-less and friendless, she would bottle it and seek an extension to the deadline she herself set down in legislation. Events have proved those doubters correct, as May did indeed ask for extra time, and is now about to do so again.
Our problem is that public opinion is hardening. Whereas a clear majority have become so fed up with the whole affair that they would rather forget we were even asked our opinion, and prefer to stay in the EU, those who continue to agitate for us to leave are now becoming convinced that no deal is the only way to achieve this. They may be right.
It is worth noting the words of Britain's most senior civil servant, therefore. He has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit. As the Independent reports, Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, has told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.
He told ministers that direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust:
He said the consequences of no deal would be "more severe" in Northern Ireland than elsewhere, adding: "The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule."
And raising the prospect of law and order breaking down, Sir Mark said none of government's "mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones...the UK would be less safe as a result."
He continued: "Our national security would be disrupted....The stability of the union would be dislocated."
The cabinet secretary said the economy would suffer the worst recession since 2008, with the subsequent fall in the value of the pound likely to be "more harmful" than in 2008 because it would affect only the UK and not other countries.
Those advocating a no deal Brexit as a way out of this mess really need to be careful what they wish for.
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No deal Brexiteers have believed this blindly for decades. The consequence of it is ilrelevent to them. It is NOT the will of the people but only one third of it. This is not pointed out enough
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