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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Brexit - a short analogy as told to the Vogons

For those who have read Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, seen the TV series or listened to the radio programmes, the last few days must seem very familiar.

After having subjected us all to their bad poetry on sovereignty, the ERG (Vogons) are about to cast the UK (Ford Prefect and Arthur Dent) out of an airlock into the vacuum of space. The only hope for our heroes is a two-headed alien, Zaphod Beeblebrox, who is titular head of the European Union, his side-kick Trillian, a paranoid android called Marvin, who presides over the elected Parliament and their improbability drive.

It is the improbability of where we currently stand in the Article 50 process that irks the most. There will be no miraculous space ship to drag us back from the vacuum of space before our two minutes are up and we suffocate due to lack of oxygen.

Instead we have just over two weeks for a fractured and uncooperative Parliament to find a way forward, take it to the EU, get the agreement of 27 different countries and then revisit all the issues. And repeat.

In my view we are at the end of the road. There are only three possible solutions to the mess that we are in:
  1. Leave on 29th March without a deal and suffer the severe economic consequences both on our economy and our personal finances and living standards, including significant job losses;
  2. Hold a referendum giving people a clear choice between Theresa May's deal and remaining in the EU; or
  3. Pass legislation in Parliament rescinding Article 50 and carry on as normal.
It is my view that we will not get a significant extension of Article 50 through the EU for anything else. They will not tolerate us kicking the can down the road any longer. They may allow an extension for a General Election but, really, that is not going to significantly change the dynamics in Parliament on the deal the EU are prepared to offer us.

My problem with the three options is that I do not believe that there is a majority in Parliament for any of them. The cold vacuum of space awaits us but the improbability drive is not available.
Comments:
The poetic Vogons should recite their poetry as to the meaning of life (no. 42) as they drive their spaceship into the nearest Sun and take their money fleecing greed of disaster economics with them. The rest of us can launch the life boats and search for survival.
 
As long as you have the right part of H2G2 for your analogy. What if we are on the Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B and the remaining Golgafrinchans are going to die from an infection by a dirty telephone handset (the Euro crisis triggered by Italy's populist government). Golgafrinchan Ship B seems like a good analogy for our services-based economy.
 
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