Monday, November 26, 2018
Theresa May's deal could leave us all £1000 a year worse off
The Independent reports on the first proper analysis of the deal that Theresa May has negotiated with the European Union and it is not good news.
The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate that the deal could leave the average person more than £1,000 worse off per year in the first decade outside of the EU. They say that the agreement could hit the UK’s economy by £100bn a year by 2030, equating to an average of £1,090 per person. They also warned that the government’s preferred outcome could see a 46 per cent hit to trade with the EU and a 21 per cent fall in foreign direct investment.
The report said: “Our key finding is that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented so that the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market in 2021, then by 2030, GDP will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.
“This is largely because higher impediments to services trade make it less attractive to sell services from the UK. This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.”
They add that if the UK remained in a customs union beyond the transition period, through the so-called Irish backstop, it would still mean a hit to GDP of 2.8 per cent a year, the equivalent of £70bn a year. The alternative of a no deal exit though, is worse. The NIESR say that the “orderly” no-deal, favoured by Brexiteers, would reduce GDP by 5.5 per cent, or £140bn a year.
Of course, these calculations do not take account of the other downsides of this deal, that we will effectively remain part of the EU single market without any say over the regulations and laws we will now be subject to. That is not in the National interest.
It is little wonder MPs are set to reject this deal and the no deal alternative. Will they grasp the nettle though and give the British people the option of choosing for themselves whether we accept the deal or stay in the European Union?
The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate that the deal could leave the average person more than £1,000 worse off per year in the first decade outside of the EU. They say that the agreement could hit the UK’s economy by £100bn a year by 2030, equating to an average of £1,090 per person. They also warned that the government’s preferred outcome could see a 46 per cent hit to trade with the EU and a 21 per cent fall in foreign direct investment.
The report said: “Our key finding is that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented so that the UK leaves the EU customs union and single market in 2021, then by 2030, GDP will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.
“This is largely because higher impediments to services trade make it less attractive to sell services from the UK. This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.”
They add that if the UK remained in a customs union beyond the transition period, through the so-called Irish backstop, it would still mean a hit to GDP of 2.8 per cent a year, the equivalent of £70bn a year. The alternative of a no deal exit though, is worse. The NIESR say that the “orderly” no-deal, favoured by Brexiteers, would reduce GDP by 5.5 per cent, or £140bn a year.
Of course, these calculations do not take account of the other downsides of this deal, that we will effectively remain part of the EU single market without any say over the regulations and laws we will now be subject to. That is not in the National interest.
It is little wonder MPs are set to reject this deal and the no deal alternative. Will they grasp the nettle though and give the British people the option of choosing for themselves whether we accept the deal or stay in the European Union?
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"It is little wonder MPs are set to reject this deal and the no deal alternative. Will they grasp the nettle though and give the British people the option of choosing for themselves whether we accept the deal or stay in the European Union?"
What do you suppose will happen if they don't?
Can you give people any assurance that the result of voting against May's deal won't be that we leave with no deal?
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What do you suppose will happen if they don't?
Can you give people any assurance that the result of voting against May's deal won't be that we leave with no deal?
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