Friday, October 26, 2018
How Brexit will hit young people
Another day, yet another report highlighting the toxic impact on the UK and on people's standards of living if we leave the EU.
The Independent tells us about new research by an Oxford economist which has found that young people will lose as much as £108,000 in earnings by 2050 if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. This is more than three times the cost of deposit on a first home and shows that the young will “lose the most” from leaving the EU.
Even under a “soft Brexit” young people will be £32,000 worse off, because every exit scenario will make the UK poorer:
The analysis calculates the loss of earnings from the Treasury’s own leaked projections for the damage from Brexit, which was published earlier this year after a huge row.
It said a no-deal Brexit, leaving Britain trading with Europe on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, would reduce GDP by 8 per cent over 15 years.
Leaving with a “Canada-style” free trade agreement, as favoured by Boris Johnson, would see growth cut by 5 per cent – while even staying inside the single market, a “Norway” deal, would deliver a 2 per cent hit.
The research turns those figures into the impact on earnings which, because the economy would be smaller permanently than if the UK stayed in the EU, would linger to 2050 and beyond.
A WTO Brexit would cut total earnings by between £44,000 and £108,000 – with £76,000 the most likely cost – while “Canada” would cost £30,000-£72,000 and “Norway” £7,000-£32,000.
The short-term hit from a no-deal departure would also be significant, the study says, costing 18 to 21-year-olds £675 a year and 22 to 29-year-olds £830 a year.
The paper adds that other ways the young will be punished by Brexit, including:
* The loss of freedom of movement – with 78 per cent of 18 to 20-year-olds saying they will miss the right to live and work across the continent.
* They are disproportionately agency and part-time workers – where EU protections were resisted by the UK and are “most at risk of repeal after Brexit”.
* The threat to EU youth education, training and employment initiatives – including the Erasmus+ scheme, allowing students to live and work abroad.
* The minimum income threshold for UK nationals to bring foreign spouses or children into the country is set to be extended to EU nationals.
* Some data protection rights will be lost – which will “particularly affect a generation who have grown up online”.
It is little wonder that polling shows that 84 per cent of 18-20-year-olds would vote to remain in the EU if given the opportunity to do so.
The Independent tells us about new research by an Oxford economist which has found that young people will lose as much as £108,000 in earnings by 2050 if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. This is more than three times the cost of deposit on a first home and shows that the young will “lose the most” from leaving the EU.
Even under a “soft Brexit” young people will be £32,000 worse off, because every exit scenario will make the UK poorer:
The analysis calculates the loss of earnings from the Treasury’s own leaked projections for the damage from Brexit, which was published earlier this year after a huge row.
It said a no-deal Brexit, leaving Britain trading with Europe on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, would reduce GDP by 8 per cent over 15 years.
Leaving with a “Canada-style” free trade agreement, as favoured by Boris Johnson, would see growth cut by 5 per cent – while even staying inside the single market, a “Norway” deal, would deliver a 2 per cent hit.
The research turns those figures into the impact on earnings which, because the economy would be smaller permanently than if the UK stayed in the EU, would linger to 2050 and beyond.
A WTO Brexit would cut total earnings by between £44,000 and £108,000 – with £76,000 the most likely cost – while “Canada” would cost £30,000-£72,000 and “Norway” £7,000-£32,000.
The short-term hit from a no-deal departure would also be significant, the study says, costing 18 to 21-year-olds £675 a year and 22 to 29-year-olds £830 a year.
The paper adds that other ways the young will be punished by Brexit, including:
* The loss of freedom of movement – with 78 per cent of 18 to 20-year-olds saying they will miss the right to live and work across the continent.
* They are disproportionately agency and part-time workers – where EU protections were resisted by the UK and are “most at risk of repeal after Brexit”.
* The threat to EU youth education, training and employment initiatives – including the Erasmus+ scheme, allowing students to live and work abroad.
* The minimum income threshold for UK nationals to bring foreign spouses or children into the country is set to be extended to EU nationals.
* Some data protection rights will be lost – which will “particularly affect a generation who have grown up online”.
It is little wonder that polling shows that 84 per cent of 18-20-year-olds would vote to remain in the EU if given the opportunity to do so.
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Maybe as a party we should point out this information to attract the young vote. They are future adults who could help the party obtain a core vote as Mark Pack would like.
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