Sunday, September 18, 2011
Can Labour be as ruthless as the Tories?
Over on the Political Betting website Mike Smithson asks 'If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?'
His point is that the only pollster that consistently has Labour above the 40% threshold is YouGov and that has only had the party below that level twice in its last 160 surveys. All the other polls are showing Labour struggling to retain their lead, whilst ICM, who have the best record in predicting UK general election results, has the Liberal Democrats making a significant comeback.
Mike Smithson quotes his site's regular Labour columnist, HenryG Manson as saying:
“There is no way in the world Ed Miliband will be allowed to lose the next election. If it looks like he cannot win then he’ll be gone. MPs, grassroots and unions all desperately want to win outright and failing that be largest party. I’ve never known the movement soon focused and hungry – more so than 1994. If Ed Miliband isn’t delivering the goods then he’s gone. Simple as that. I hope he succeeds but that’s how it is.”
I would suggest though that Mike has asked the wrong question. The right question is can Labour be as ruthless as the Tories? If it looks like they cannot win the next General Election will they depose Ed Miliband in the same way as the Tories jettisioned Iain Duncan Smith? On past evidence with Gordon Brown, it seems that they do not have the bottle to do what is necessary.
His point is that the only pollster that consistently has Labour above the 40% threshold is YouGov and that has only had the party below that level twice in its last 160 surveys. All the other polls are showing Labour struggling to retain their lead, whilst ICM, who have the best record in predicting UK general election results, has the Liberal Democrats making a significant comeback.
Mike Smithson quotes his site's regular Labour columnist, HenryG Manson as saying:
“There is no way in the world Ed Miliband will be allowed to lose the next election. If it looks like he cannot win then he’ll be gone. MPs, grassroots and unions all desperately want to win outright and failing that be largest party. I’ve never known the movement soon focused and hungry – more so than 1994. If Ed Miliband isn’t delivering the goods then he’s gone. Simple as that. I hope he succeeds but that’s how it is.”
I would suggest though that Mike has asked the wrong question. The right question is can Labour be as ruthless as the Tories? If it looks like they cannot win the next General Election will they depose Ed Miliband in the same way as the Tories jettisioned Iain Duncan Smith? On past evidence with Gordon Brown, it seems that they do not have the bottle to do what is necessary.
