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Tuesday, May 04, 2010

This is not over yet

If the papers are to be believed the election is virtually in the bag for Cameron. Today's Daily Telegraph proclaims that the Tory leader needs just 14 more seats for outright victory. This on the basis of a poll of Labour-Conservative marginals.

The problem with these sort of projections is that even in a poll of marginals we do not get uniform swings. There will be huge regional variations and even differences within regions. Seat projections in these circumstances amount to guesswork.

Cameron is actually not much higher in the polls than Michael Howard in 2005. The only thing certain about all of these predictions is that this contest is not over yet and that Cameron should not start measuring for curtains in Number 10 yet.
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