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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Tory blogger and pundit predicts Lib Dems to hold both their Powys seats

Tory blogger and political commentator, Iain Dale has published his predictions for the General Election and surprised himself at how well the Liberal Democrats have come out of the exercise. He predicts the Liberal Democrats will win 69 seats, a net gain of seven.

This is a shock to some people but not to many Liberal Democrats who have thought for some time that we can come out of this election with more MPs than we went in to it. This is not to say that I agree with all of Iain's predictions. His assumptions for Wales for example, in my view underestimates the Welsh Liberal Democrats' potential.

I think that we will hold Ceredigion against the Plaid Cymru challenge and gain one or both of Swansea West and Newport East.

What is interesting is how Iain has finally put his own party in their place with regards to their ambitions in Powys. The Welsh Conservatives have long been touting the possibility that they will take both Montgomery and Brecon and Radnorshire off us, however it seems that Iain Dale does not buy the hype.

He has suggested that the Liberal Democrats will win three seats, which include those we hold minus Ceredigion. That will be a great disappointment to Glyn Davies and Suzy Davies, neither of whom it seems can even convince their own party that they have a chance of winning.
Dream on Mr Black.

Ian Dale says you are going to pick up 7 seats and you act as if its a done deal- how niaive are you??

The electorate have shown what they think of the lib dems in 1999, 2003 and 2007 - they didn't want more lib dem AM's and if we are being honest here if it wasn't for proportional representation there would only be 3 am's in Wales.

Get real Mr Black and get a life!!
On the contrary I have said that I do not agree with Iain Dale's predictions. What I have said is that he is out of synch with members of his own party who are predicting doom and gloom for the Liberal Democrats.

It is a fact by the way that in every election since 1992, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have increased their vote across Wales on comparable elections before them. So I think that says something about what the Welsh electorate thinks.

It is also a fact that Proportional Representation is the fairest way of electing politicians and thus the fact that we have 6 AMs is perfectly just.

As for getting a life, I am not the one commenting on this blog behind an anonymous pseudonym.
Ceredigion, Peter, does not have too many e's!!!

I think that Iain has his numbers wrong. Using a reverse forecast system, his projection produces a forecast vote share of:

Conservatives 39% (+6% on Election 2005)
Labour 29% (-7% on Election 2005)
Liberal Democrats 24% (+1% on Election 2005)
Others 8% (Unchanged on Election 2005)

I think he is severely over estimating the Labour vote by about 6% and under estimating the Others vote by 6%
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