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Saturday, October 03, 2009

Because I do votes in the ballot box

I have said before that I do not take much notice of opinion polls but actual votes in the ballot box are a different thing. It is not that local council elections prove much in relation to voting intentions at a General Election but it does show that when that contest comes, it will be by no means a two horse race.

In Council by-elections on Thursday there was no sign of a post-conference "Brown bounce", whilst the Tories were hit by a huge surge to the Liberal Democrats.

An analysis of the five wards fought both times by all three major parties put the Liberal Democrats first in a projected national line-up on 36.3 per cent, with the Tories on 32.1 per cent and Labour on just 21.6 per cent.

Labour made one gain from independent in its traditional Doon Valley, East Ayrshire, stronghold but even here there was a net swing to the SNP.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats gained from the Tories at Droitwich South West, Wychavon District, Worcestershire, and from independents in two Norfolk districts, at Wroxham, Broadland, and Walsingham, North Norfolk.
I can hear the barrel being scraped from here. None of the ballot box results you quote are in Wales - your home patch. The only good news in the poll is that Lembit will survive, this is contrary to local opinion and a thin straw on the camel's back that you can grasp.
It is hardly my fault there were no local Council by-elections in Wales is it? This blog does not just concentrate on Wales. I have always thought that Lembit will win but I would not take much notice of this poll. It lumps Wales in with the Midlands for starters, it omits some key seats in Wales the Liberal Democrats are planning in winning and it does not have a big enough sample in any constituency to give even a reasonable guess as to the result.
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