Friday, September 18, 2009
Off to Conference
As I prepare to set off to Bournemouth for the Liberal Democrat Conference I was interested to read Daran Hill's piece on Wales Home on prospects for our party here at the next General Election. It is a fair and well-balanced piece that is worth a read. His conclusions very much reflect my own when I wrote on this topic on Freedom Central earlier this week.
Unfortunately, I am not going to be at Conference long as I have to leave Bournemouth early on Monday morning so as to get to an Assembly Commission meeting in Cardiff. At that meeting we will be discussing the Commission's budget, the implementation of Sir Roger Jones' report on AMs' expenses and of course the row over the bi-lingual nature of the record of proceedings for Plenary meetings.
Unfortunately, I am not going to be at Conference long as I have to leave Bournemouth early on Monday morning so as to get to an Assembly Commission meeting in Cardiff. At that meeting we will be discussing the Commission's budget, the implementation of Sir Roger Jones' report on AMs' expenses and of course the row over the bi-lingual nature of the record of proceedings for Plenary meetings.
Comments:
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Peter,
The question is are you in as good a position now as you were in 2005? UK wide you have fallen from 73,000 members to 59,000. You have lost a very popular Westminster leader who has been replaced by Nick Clegg who has yet to make a real impact.
In 2005 you had £250,000 to spend in Wales (obviously nothing to do with Michael Browns £2m donation) but will this be available again?
The Lib Dems could really be in trouble at this Westminster election although I agree that you should pick up a couple of list seats at the next assembly election.
The question is are you in as good a position now as you were in 2005? UK wide you have fallen from 73,000 members to 59,000. You have lost a very popular Westminster leader who has been replaced by Nick Clegg who has yet to make a real impact.
In 2005 you had £250,000 to spend in Wales (obviously nothing to do with Michael Browns £2m donation) but will this be available again?
The Lib Dems could really be in trouble at this Westminster election although I agree that you should pick up a couple of list seats at the next assembly election.
# posted by 
: 10:27 AM
: 10:27 AM
You have made a lot of assumptions there, not least how much we will have to spend at the next General Election. Nick Clegg is making an impact and as we go into the General Election his profile will rise in the same way as that of his predecessors. Frankly, your crystal ball is as good as mine.
They are both fair articles.
There's not much distance between the Liberal Democrats having a really good election in Wales, and having a really bad one. All to play for at this stage I would say.
Could be anything from being left with only Cardiff Central to holding all four and gaining Newport East and Swansea West.
Powys will probably hold firm but if Plaid pull their finger out, Ceredigion will go. It's whisker thin there in my view, as are Swansea and Newport which is why I say that the line between really good and really bad for the Liberal Democrats is very fine.
Could be win some, lose some.
It's worth bearing in mind that 4 seats in Wales is the best Liberal/Liberal Democrat position since 1950
Twm is right, Clegg doesn't have the impact that Kennedy had.
It would surely be disaster for the Liberal Democrats not to advance at the next Assembly elections
There's not much distance between the Liberal Democrats having a really good election in Wales, and having a really bad one. All to play for at this stage I would say.
Could be anything from being left with only Cardiff Central to holding all four and gaining Newport East and Swansea West.
Powys will probably hold firm but if Plaid pull their finger out, Ceredigion will go. It's whisker thin there in my view, as are Swansea and Newport which is why I say that the line between really good and really bad for the Liberal Democrats is very fine.
Could be win some, lose some.
It's worth bearing in mind that 4 seats in Wales is the best Liberal/Liberal Democrat position since 1950
Twm is right, Clegg doesn't have the impact that Kennedy had.
It would surely be disaster for the Liberal Democrats not to advance at the next Assembly elections
# posted by : 7:20 PM
: 7:20 PM
"His conclusions very much reflect my own when I wrote on this topic on Freedom Central earlier this week."
The same occurred to me when I read yours. I had written mine last Sunday evening, but reading your fair assessment on Tuesday assured me I was on right track.
"the line between really good and really bad for the Liberal Democrats is very fine."
Very good point and one I wish I had made!
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The same occurred to me when I read yours. I had written mine last Sunday evening, but reading your fair assessment on Tuesday assured me I was on right track.
"the line between really good and really bad for the Liberal Democrats is very fine."
Very good point and one I wish I had made!
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