Friday, June 05, 2009
Unprecedented storm
I can honestly say that I have never seen anything like it before. The nearest political equivalent in my lifetime was Michael Heseltine storming out of the cabinet over Westland and then setting himself up in a darkened corner of Westminster as a possible leadership challenger. But he was never as open as some have been tonight about the sustainability of Thatcher's position nor ddi he directly threaten it at that time and he looked isolated in comparison to this week's rebels.
Of course there was Geoffrey Howe's famous resignation speech to the House of Commons which sounded the death-knell for Thatcher's premiership but somehow that sounded more ordered, less chaotic. I did not get the sense of a party ripping itself apart, rather one seeking renewal and change and of course the Tories came back to win the 1992 General Election precisely because they were able to keep some semblance of order to proceedings.
The present crisis has a sense of desperation about it. Ministers appear to be resigning in despair rather than principle. They do not know what they can do to turn things around, they have a vague notion that it is all Gordon's fault but they have no mechanism by which they can remove him or an alternative Prime Minister so they are trying to bring things to a head quickly in the hope that it will all turn out for the best in the end. Perhaps they just want it all to be over so that they can settle into the comfort of four years of opposition. There appears to be no co-ordination between the rebels, no plan and no end-game. It is chaos.
What makes it worse for Labour is that Gordon's reshuffle is already looking like a damp squib. He is going to keep Darling as Chancellor. He has limited options and even less authority. He does not have the room to carry out the decisive and imaginative reorganisation of his government that is required if he is to start any form of fightback.
I joked with Wayne David behind the scenes at the BBC Dragon's Eye programme last night that he should keep his mobile on because he might receive a call to join the cabinet. We speculated that Peter Hain might be called back. Gordon Brown has nothing fresh or new to offer us. I am beginning to think that we might have a summer General Election after all.
Of course there was Geoffrey Howe's famous resignation speech to the House of Commons which sounded the death-knell for Thatcher's premiership but somehow that sounded more ordered, less chaotic. I did not get the sense of a party ripping itself apart, rather one seeking renewal and change and of course the Tories came back to win the 1992 General Election precisely because they were able to keep some semblance of order to proceedings.
The present crisis has a sense of desperation about it. Ministers appear to be resigning in despair rather than principle. They do not know what they can do to turn things around, they have a vague notion that it is all Gordon's fault but they have no mechanism by which they can remove him or an alternative Prime Minister so they are trying to bring things to a head quickly in the hope that it will all turn out for the best in the end. Perhaps they just want it all to be over so that they can settle into the comfort of four years of opposition. There appears to be no co-ordination between the rebels, no plan and no end-game. It is chaos.
What makes it worse for Labour is that Gordon's reshuffle is already looking like a damp squib. He is going to keep Darling as Chancellor. He has limited options and even less authority. He does not have the room to carry out the decisive and imaginative reorganisation of his government that is required if he is to start any form of fightback.
I joked with Wayne David behind the scenes at the BBC Dragon's Eye programme last night that he should keep his mobile on because he might receive a call to join the cabinet. We speculated that Peter Hain might be called back. Gordon Brown has nothing fresh or new to offer us. I am beginning to think that we might have a summer General Election after all.
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Explain Somerset and Devon please Peter? Let's hear it ......
Also, do you want to post Somerset and Devon Lib Dem predictions made in Focus newsletters down there during the campaign about how well you were going to do, or do you want to leave it to others to expose your party's wildly inaccurate predictions?
Also, do you want to post Somerset and Devon Lib Dem predictions made in Focus newsletters down there during the campaign about how well you were going to do, or do you want to leave it to others to expose your party's wildly inaccurate predictions?
# posted by 
: 2:00 PM
: 2:00 PM
I would guess that the Tories in Sonerset and Devon benefited from the national swing to them in the same way as the Liberal Democrats have benefited in Bristol and elsewhere. It is worth noting however that the Liberal Democrats only had minority control of Somerset and that Devon has a history of swinging between NOC, Lib Dem and Tory control. I look forward to you analysis of our leaflets to illustrate your point. I doubt if you will be forthcoming with it however.
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