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Thursday, January 01, 2009

Nine for 2009

A mixture of wishes and predictions for the forthcoming year:

1. There will be a General Election in 2009, most probably in the autumn. The Liberal Demorats will slightly increase their number of MPs, holding on to all four of their Welsh seats. Gordon Brown will emerge from the election with a single figure majority.
2. The Swans will finish comfortably in the top half of the Championship but will miss the play-offs.
3. Rhodri Morgan will resign as Welsh Labour Leader on schedule and will be succeeded by Carwyn Jones.
4. Nick Bourne will survive the year as Welsh Conservative Leader.
5. Wales will win another Grand Slam.
6. I will seek to lose weight and fail miserably once more.
7. Vaughan Roderick will write something nice about the Welsh Liberal Democrats on his blog.
8. The Labour-Plaid Cymru One Wales coalition will survive a major crisis over the Welsh Language LCO and limp on throughout the year.
9. The Ospreys will win the Magners League and the EDF Cup.

There I really have put my head on the line this time.
What do you want to lose weight for? O_o

Skinny men are Just Wrong.
Quite agree with you Jennie; Peter, next time your in Gwynedd, pop into Cllr Chris Hughes's chippy and get yourself a large bag of sglodion!
I think the WLDs will emerge from the next Election with 5 seats, although the 5 they bag may be a touch more urban in character than now. There could be more - that would depend on the extent of Plaid's continued (deserved) collapse, and how much Labour continues to take its 'heartlands' for granted in 2009.
Peter your very optimistic to think you can hold on to all four seats. Having said that at least there is some (albeit very slim chance of that) where as a guess from penarths view that you could take five is bonkers!

Also where is the Plaid collapse he speaks of? In the last two elections the party won more assembly seats to enter government whilst it then increased its councilors to the highest number in history?
5 seats bonkers? Well, it was a guess, anonymous, so we'll see!

As for searching for Plaid's collapse, the achievements you list are all in the past - we've yet to see what will happen when Wales votes next. My own observation (taken from amongst friends and colleagues who have voted Plaid) is that they have been very disillusioned with the party now that it has some element of power and doesn't seem to know what to do with it, or even what the its intentions are. Is it nationalist, or welsh-socialist, or republican - is it even for independence, even if only sometime, or never?? Is it an interest group for the WElsh language and (part) of the rural community? This fuzziness is fine when you're gathering protest votes but if you want to govern the electorate has to be told what you are.
The Plaid/Labour coalition is unlikely to survive past 2009. The Welsh language LCO is already causing controversy, (Betsan's Blog currently has 240 messages on the subject), Plaid will be unforgiving if the LCO is not delivered.
Surely general election and rhtodrri going are incompatible. I'm beginning to come round to the idea of autumn too now,

In terms of wld seats, I'm inclined to think 4 or 5, though not absolutely neccasserilly including all the current 4. Thin guess from penarth has it about right,

Don't think bourne will survive the whole year.
why no mention of any of the other contenders for labour leader in wales?

surely you aren't hoping for another Labour coronation in UK politics?
It is not my concern whether there is a contest or not. I have just singled out who I think will win.
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