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Friday, January 02, 2009

Joining the Euro

The photograph on the left was donated by Gary Lewis and illustrates the weakness of the pound. Currently the exchange rate for tourists is £1 for one Euro.

This morning's Western Mail leads with the extraordinary proposition that joining the Euro at this stage will somehow rescue the Welsh economy. The paper cites as its authority a number of politicians and experts nearly all of whom would no doubt agree that we should have joined the Euro some time ago and that if we had done so then we would not be in such a mess. I am not so sure however that they would want to enter the Eurozone at the current rate of exchange and with the British economy where it is.

Dafydd Wigley sums it up in my view when he says that Britain’s decision to opt out of the euro was a “missed opportunity” and warns that Britain’s economy may now have become too weak to share the benefits of the single currency.

For once I agree with Adam Price, though I may not go as far as him in the conditions he wants to impose before we join the single european currency. He argues that it would be “economic madness” for Britain to join the euro at present.

I continue to be a supporter of Britain joining the Euro but I think we have to be realistic and accept that now is not the time to do it. If we had gone in a few years ago it may well be that we would not be in such a mess now. Certainly, holidays on the European continent would be a damn sight easier whilst exchange fluctuations would not have such an impact on the economy.

The important thing is that we must not miss the opportunity next time it presents itself to us and that means losing the sentimental attachment to the pound so evident in the recent ICM survey for BBC Radio 4’s The World At One.
Comments:
It's sort of a sadly British thing, that now we hear voices for the Euro just because our own economy is in trouble. Quite whether the Eurozone would be bound to accept British entry, given that we'd be doing so at a time that suits us, entirely to suit ourselves (as usual) is one thing, but what sort of final exchange rate could we set if we were to do so anyway?
 
Quite interestingly, the exchange rate was around $1.95 - $2.00 to the pound up until the middle of July 2008.

Around March 2008 you could get €
1.35 to the pound, and it didn't really sink below €1.25 until the begining of November 2008.

Sorry I didn't get photos then Peter!

The problem with having a "National" currency like the Pound is that you have to exchange the Pound to Dollars to buy raw material, and convert to Euros to sell the products you are making.

We should have gone into either the Euro or the Dollar when the exchange rates were around the $1.80 to the Pound or €1.50 to the Pound.

....but at the moment we are in limbo, with a sinking currency which will soon be as valued as the Turkish Lira!!!
 
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