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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Colin Powell endorses Barrack Obama

I doubt whether this is a turning point in the US Presidential campaign, that appears to have been the appointment of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Once the conference bounce had settled down, that decision turned the polls in Obama's favour, a point not lost on Colin Powell, who cites it as a question mark over the Republican candidate's judgement. General Powell's endorsement of Barrack Obama is on the video below.

My view is that Obama is in a winning position and that barring a disaster, will pull it off on Tuesday November 4th. However, others have a different view and nobody yet knows whether there will be a Bradley effect or not.

As you would expect I am keeping my fingers crossed for an Obama win. Let us hope that he can win it and win it well.
lets just hope Obama can win.
Someone a little different and someone more moderate to embrace International relations and threats.
Which kind of puzzles me. Obama wants to re-negotiate trade treaties and has promised to rewrite the Federal Tax Code to encourage US corporations to bring jobs back to the USA which will put the USA on a collision course with the WTO.
I did warn some time back that Democrats tend to be more protectionist than Republicans. It looks like both houses of Congress will be solidly Democrat after this winter's election, too.
Believe me Peter if Obama's rhetoric on trade and protectionism has some substance. You don't want Obama to win big, because Welsh jobs could go.
I agree with you Frank.

Congress moved into Democrat hands two years ago in the last Congressional election cycle (if memory serves the members of the lower house are elected every 2 years, whereas one third of the Senate/Upper House is up for election every 2 years).

If Obama wins this November there will be a Democratic Congress (in both the lower and upper houses) and a Democratic President. The Democrats need to deliver on American jobs by 2012. So I am puzzled why Europeans who need open trade with the USA are so for the Democrats because there is likely to be a lot of pressure on open trade between the USA and the EU. Open trade will be in peril.

Europeans might well get their wish, but it will come at a price.
This sort of rhetoric routinely comes from both sides in any US President election but the realities of power and international relations often defeat the intentions of candidates once they assume office.
Errrr - I guess you, like many Europeans who don't live in the USA know better. This "routine rhetoric" as you portray it is anything but. Obama has made promises to the American workers unions and to the blue-collar workers in the swing states like OH.

This is a very dangerous time for Europe.

The Republican Party supports open free trade, it is the Democrats who say that they will renegotiate free trade agreements and rewrite the Federal Tax Code to favour American companies that bring back jobs to Americans from overseas.

The Federal Tax Code will be legislated on by Congress - as Frank alludes to, Congress is likely are (if the polls are correct) going to be hard-boiled Democrat. It is Congress (i.e., the Legislature) that has the power to enact new Federal Tax Code. How can the Democrats keep a straight face when they their Representatives are up for re-election in 2010 (that’s just 2 years away) along with a third of the Senate? Congress has to deliver or swing states with under utilized blue-collar workers will likely either not vote Democrat in 2010/2012 or will vote against them.

This is anything but "politics as usual" - this is a sea change in how blue-collar workers see themselves - THEY WANT THEIR JOBS BACK. At the end of the day blue-collar Americans still believe they are the top country in the world, and they will not back a party that won’t stand up for America – particularly during such tough times as blue-collar American workers are now facing. Americans will not tolerate 10% unemployment like Brits can – they just won’t. So the Democrats had better deliver on their promises. If the Democrats deliver - this will impact on Europe. So it puzzles me why Europeans so want Obama and the Democrats have power over both houses of Congress and the Presidency. Don't you guys see a serious risk here? Or are you so emotional/subjective about it that you don't see it?

I'm a pragmatist - I want Wales to keep its Ford/US corporate jobs. But if the Democrats rewrite the Federal Tax Code and make it a condition (since Congress has 'spending power' - an enumerated power) that the Federal Government will offer large loan guarantees to GM (and maybe Ford) that these companies favour US plants over foreign plants then Europe will see protectionism - and when they see it, they will react to it and world trade will very likely be impacted.

GM is in terrible shape - workers are on short time, plants are under threat. Cars are not selling off American forecourts because of the credit crunch. When times are hard protectionism tends to rear ugly teeth.

Even Chinese plants will suffer and close down or switch production to suit domestic markets. Trade will be hit between the USA and China, and USA and Europe.

This "routine rhetoric" as you portray it is anything but. You don't live here in the USA - I tell you with all candor, trade will be impacted to bring jobs back to blue-collar Americans. This is not "routine rhetoric", not unless the Democrats want to be seen as the party that doesn't deliver on its promises and loose seats in 2010 and 2012.
Maybe but I have seen this rhetoric before. Remember that although Europe is a free trade area those seeking to export to it suffer a major disadvantage. They overcome that advantage by manufacturing within the European Union area. The idea of repatriating American jobs will have that reality to overcome as well as any reprisals in the form of tarrifs from those countries that may be disadvantaged by such a policy. I do not think Wales and Europe needs to panic just yet.
That's the point Peter - if Obama and the Democrats keep to their promises then Europe will react, will retaliate with tarrifs on US goods. Obama and his party ascendent in Congress will respond in kind and world trade will be harmed. It is very unlikely to happen if Congress and the Presidency are in different hands - one Democrat and one Republican. With Congress and the Presidency under firm control of one party it can happen - a check/balance will be gone. Are you finally starting to see that? In a recession it is VERY dangerous for Europe to have both the Congress and the Presidency in the hands of one party, particularly a party that has emphatically promised blue-collar unions to rewrite the Federal Tax Code and renegotiate international trade deals to bring jobs back to blue-collar states.

This is not "politics as usual", Europe is in for a VERY nasty surprise. I fear that Europe will get what it wishes for, but at a very expensive price: a Congress and a White House in the hands of one party during a severe recessionary period with promises up the yahzoo to rewrite the Fed Tax Code and rewrite or vote down international trade agreements.
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