Sunday, November 04, 2007
Deal or no deal?
Honestly, I go away for a week's holiday and by the time I come back the One Wales Government is on the verge of collapse. Well, at least they cannot blame me this time, although some might say that the events that have led to this present crisis were inevitable.
According to the Western Mail, hard-liners within Plaid Cymru are preparing to go to the Party's National Council on November 17, with a motion proposing an end to the coalition because they are are unhappy at what they see as a rowing back from their partnership deal by Labour, specifically over the holding of a referendum on law-making powers by 2011:
The latest tensions have been provoked by a interview given by Welsh Secretary Peter Hain at the weekend, in which he said, “I didn’t take the Government of Wales Bill through, nor did MPs vote for it, to be bounced into an early referendum.”
Days earlier, First Minister Rhodri Morgan and his deputy, Plaid’s Ieuan Wyn Jones, appointed diplomat Sir Emyr Jones Parry to head a convention charged with looking at the case for a referendum. Mr Morgan said he saw “no reason” to deviate from the 2011 timetable.
Labour faces its own tensions, with many of its MPs against both the coalition deal and the referendum idea.
Senior figures in Plaid are seeking a compromise before its November 17 meeting. They hope some further statement from Labour will calm the situation and make the commitment to the 2011 date clearer.
When I first read this news whilst on holiday my first reaction was that it is a storm in a teacup, that will quickly resolve itself. Plaid Cymru, I reasoned, would not jump ship so soon and some face-saving intervention will appear to quickly sooth troubled activists. Sure enough in today's Wales on Sunday, Mr. Hain himself, reappears in a conciliatory mood:
Mr Hain provoked jitters among Labour’s coalition partners Plaid Cymru last week after saying he did not want to be “bounced into an early referendum”.
But Mr Hain last night sought to put the record straight, insisting that he was only concerned such a poll would not be won.
He said: “I gave my full support to Rhodri (Morgan) over the One Wales document and still do. Nothing has changed.
“I’ve always been in support of full law-making powers for Wales and indeed legislated this into the 2006 Government of Wales Act.
“My overwhelming concern is that we have to win a referendum. To lose one would be disastrous.
“There’s no cross-party consensus sufficiently wide and deep to win a ‘yes’ vote now and nor can we be sufficiently confident that public support is there. We have to build that consensus.
“That’s why we’re proceeding as laid out in One Wales to convene a joint Labour-Plaid MP and AM group to take forward preparations for a convention.
“To speak of the Secretary of State vetoing is absurd. I want to be part of a successful ‘yes’ campaign as I was in 1997.
“I fear that calling a premature referendum would produce a repeat of 1979.
“I said this in Parliament during the passage of the bill in 2006 in my concluding speech, at the special Welsh Labour Conference in July and I said it again last week.
“Nothing has changed.”
This will no doubt be more than enough to head off a re-think by Plaid Cymru if such an event was ever going to occur, which I doubt. The episode has, however, proved useful for the nationalists as it has enabled them to flex their muscles publicly and remind Labour that they are not going to have it all their own way. That does not mean that things are going to be any smoother for the two coalition partners. If anything, the ride is set to get considerably more stormy.
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, a number of Labour AMs, MPs, Councillors and leading activists are already getting considerably cheesed off by the way that Plaid Cymru is playing this partnership deal. They have not been happy at the way some Plaid AMs have continued to behave as if they are in opposition, even to the extent of blaming Labour Ministers for unpopular decisions and refusing to accept collective responsibility.
They have also been more than a little peeved at the fact that Plaid have sought to compensate for their alliance with Labour by stepping up the volume and the number of attacks on the Westminster Government. So far they have tolerated these indiscretions but mutterings and mumblings in the ranks have started to grow and I do not see them easing off in the future. By the time of Rhodri Morgan's retirement a large number of senior Labour figures may well be looking to use the opportunity to change direction. I would not rule out Plaid Cymru wanting to use the same window to jump ship either.
Secondly, the publication of the budget this Monday will be the first real test of the coalition. None of us knows what is in it as yet, but what we do know is that the settlement is tight and that some very hard decisions will have to be made. Bitter pills will have to be swallowed by all concerned. The unknown in this process is the robustness of the digestive system of Plaid AMs and activists.
What seems likely is that local government will be short-changed so as to save some of the flashier gimmicks like free laptops and grants for first time home-buyers as well as to bolster the health budget. The Government will gamble that local government will shout a lot but keep Council Tax down anyway due to the fact that they face elections next year. The Finance Minister has already said as much in Plenary.
This though, will lead to a huge amount of flack being directed at local Plaid Cymru and Labour activists, blaming them for inevitable service cuts, and if the percentage rise in the revenue support grant is below that received by the Assembly Government from Westminister, then some of that mud will stick. I also expect some treasured promises in the One Wales document to be trimmed back.
All of this of course, adds to the interest in Welsh politics. How it is to be played out is fairly predictable, what is not so easy to forecast is the long-term implications of the decisions that will be made in the next few weeks both on Wales and its local and national governance. Neutral observers should settle down to watch a long game.
According to the Western Mail, hard-liners within Plaid Cymru are preparing to go to the Party's National Council on November 17, with a motion proposing an end to the coalition because they are are unhappy at what they see as a rowing back from their partnership deal by Labour, specifically over the holding of a referendum on law-making powers by 2011:
The latest tensions have been provoked by a interview given by Welsh Secretary Peter Hain at the weekend, in which he said, “I didn’t take the Government of Wales Bill through, nor did MPs vote for it, to be bounced into an early referendum.”
Days earlier, First Minister Rhodri Morgan and his deputy, Plaid’s Ieuan Wyn Jones, appointed diplomat Sir Emyr Jones Parry to head a convention charged with looking at the case for a referendum. Mr Morgan said he saw “no reason” to deviate from the 2011 timetable.
Labour faces its own tensions, with many of its MPs against both the coalition deal and the referendum idea.
Senior figures in Plaid are seeking a compromise before its November 17 meeting. They hope some further statement from Labour will calm the situation and make the commitment to the 2011 date clearer.
When I first read this news whilst on holiday my first reaction was that it is a storm in a teacup, that will quickly resolve itself. Plaid Cymru, I reasoned, would not jump ship so soon and some face-saving intervention will appear to quickly sooth troubled activists. Sure enough in today's Wales on Sunday, Mr. Hain himself, reappears in a conciliatory mood:
Mr Hain provoked jitters among Labour’s coalition partners Plaid Cymru last week after saying he did not want to be “bounced into an early referendum”.
But Mr Hain last night sought to put the record straight, insisting that he was only concerned such a poll would not be won.
He said: “I gave my full support to Rhodri (Morgan) over the One Wales document and still do. Nothing has changed.
“I’ve always been in support of full law-making powers for Wales and indeed legislated this into the 2006 Government of Wales Act.
“My overwhelming concern is that we have to win a referendum. To lose one would be disastrous.
“There’s no cross-party consensus sufficiently wide and deep to win a ‘yes’ vote now and nor can we be sufficiently confident that public support is there. We have to build that consensus.
“That’s why we’re proceeding as laid out in One Wales to convene a joint Labour-Plaid MP and AM group to take forward preparations for a convention.
“To speak of the Secretary of State vetoing is absurd. I want to be part of a successful ‘yes’ campaign as I was in 1997.
“I fear that calling a premature referendum would produce a repeat of 1979.
“I said this in Parliament during the passage of the bill in 2006 in my concluding speech, at the special Welsh Labour Conference in July and I said it again last week.
“Nothing has changed.”
This will no doubt be more than enough to head off a re-think by Plaid Cymru if such an event was ever going to occur, which I doubt. The episode has, however, proved useful for the nationalists as it has enabled them to flex their muscles publicly and remind Labour that they are not going to have it all their own way. That does not mean that things are going to be any smoother for the two coalition partners. If anything, the ride is set to get considerably more stormy.
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, a number of Labour AMs, MPs, Councillors and leading activists are already getting considerably cheesed off by the way that Plaid Cymru is playing this partnership deal. They have not been happy at the way some Plaid AMs have continued to behave as if they are in opposition, even to the extent of blaming Labour Ministers for unpopular decisions and refusing to accept collective responsibility.
They have also been more than a little peeved at the fact that Plaid have sought to compensate for their alliance with Labour by stepping up the volume and the number of attacks on the Westminster Government. So far they have tolerated these indiscretions but mutterings and mumblings in the ranks have started to grow and I do not see them easing off in the future. By the time of Rhodri Morgan's retirement a large number of senior Labour figures may well be looking to use the opportunity to change direction. I would not rule out Plaid Cymru wanting to use the same window to jump ship either.
Secondly, the publication of the budget this Monday will be the first real test of the coalition. None of us knows what is in it as yet, but what we do know is that the settlement is tight and that some very hard decisions will have to be made. Bitter pills will have to be swallowed by all concerned. The unknown in this process is the robustness of the digestive system of Plaid AMs and activists.
What seems likely is that local government will be short-changed so as to save some of the flashier gimmicks like free laptops and grants for first time home-buyers as well as to bolster the health budget. The Government will gamble that local government will shout a lot but keep Council Tax down anyway due to the fact that they face elections next year. The Finance Minister has already said as much in Plenary.
This though, will lead to a huge amount of flack being directed at local Plaid Cymru and Labour activists, blaming them for inevitable service cuts, and if the percentage rise in the revenue support grant is below that received by the Assembly Government from Westminister, then some of that mud will stick. I also expect some treasured promises in the One Wales document to be trimmed back.
All of this of course, adds to the interest in Welsh politics. How it is to be played out is fairly predictable, what is not so easy to forecast is the long-term implications of the decisions that will be made in the next few weeks both on Wales and its local and national governance. Neutral observers should settle down to watch a long game.
Comments:
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If the reports of 2nd Nov by the Western Mail political writer, Tomos Livingstone, are to be believed then the whole of the One Wales agreement stands or falls on the date for a Welsh referendum on a Welsh Parliament. All of the other points contained within the Plaid/Labour deal are of no consequence to some within Plaid it seems. The only issue is whether or not there is a referendum. I wonder if all the other ideas for government contained with in the One Wales agreement is really of such little importance to Plaid when compared to a "referendum". Surely there are still policies contained within the agreement between Plaid and Labour that are important enough for the coalition and Government of Wales to continue even if there is no carved in stone statement on when a referendum will be held?
Plaid must remember that there would have been no referendum issue if the Rainbow deal had been done, the three parties involved would not have had sufficient numbers to take it past the 60% necessary for a referendum.
Plaid is in a right pickle now, there’s a budget to compile and Wales knows how Plaid loves to support a Labour budget. Also Plaid are staring at a drubbing in Gwynedd next May so it is hardly the time for Plaid to start rattle throwing whilst they are over the Labour barrel.
As much as it galls me to do it I can only admire the way that Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain have so effectively neutralised Plaids aspirations and so quickly.
On the other hand the One Wales agreement may be more than a one issue deal for Plaid, time will tell.
Plaid must remember that there would have been no referendum issue if the Rainbow deal had been done, the three parties involved would not have had sufficient numbers to take it past the 60% necessary for a referendum.
Plaid is in a right pickle now, there’s a budget to compile and Wales knows how Plaid loves to support a Labour budget. Also Plaid are staring at a drubbing in Gwynedd next May so it is hardly the time for Plaid to start rattle throwing whilst they are over the Labour barrel.
As much as it galls me to do it I can only admire the way that Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain have so effectively neutralised Plaids aspirations and so quickly.
On the other hand the One Wales agreement may be more than a one issue deal for Plaid, time will tell.
Mike Powell should not confuse what are the view of "some" in Plaid and attribute it as being the view of the party as a whole. Members are not going to chuck out One Wales.
"Plaid is in a right pickle now" - says the Liberal Democrat!!!
Rather be in our position than yours, comrade. If Plaid are in for a "drubbing" (whatever amounts to a "drubbing" in Mike Powell's eyes), it can't possibly compare with the abyss into which the Liberal Democrats (Wales Branch) are staring vis-a-vis next year's elections.
"Plaid is in a right pickle now" - says the Liberal Democrat!!!
Rather be in our position than yours, comrade. If Plaid are in for a "drubbing" (whatever amounts to a "drubbing" in Mike Powell's eyes), it can't possibly compare with the abyss into which the Liberal Democrats (Wales Branch) are staring vis-a-vis next year's elections.
# posted by 
: 1:27 PM
: 1:27 PM
"Rather be in our position than yours, comrade."
I doubt that Mike would see himself as your comrade mon amis.
I doubt that Mike would see himself as your comrade mon amis.
# posted by : 5:19 PM
: 5:19 PM
Anon 5:19 - Mr Powell and I go back a long way and understand each other well!!
I'm not sure which bit of it is the wishful thinking. The wish to see the Liberal Democrats topple over into said abyss is a sincerely held one. Of the British parties they are surely the most deserving of that fate.
I'm willing to wager that after May next year the Liberal Democrats will not be leading Cardiff, Bridgend & Swansea but Plaid will still be leading Gwynedd.
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I'm not sure which bit of it is the wishful thinking. The wish to see the Liberal Democrats topple over into said abyss is a sincerely held one. Of the British parties they are surely the most deserving of that fate.
I'm willing to wager that after May next year the Liberal Democrats will not be leading Cardiff, Bridgend & Swansea but Plaid will still be leading Gwynedd.
# posted by : 6:15 PM
: 6:15 PM<< Home
