Saturday, February 03, 2007
Defining the issues
Rhodri Morgan's plea yesterday that voters should judge candidates in the forthcoming Assembly elections on Welsh issues, and not use it as a "referendum on things elsewhere" is an old tactic with a good track record. However, to make it work those issues have to dominate the campaign, whilst external matters are relegated to the sidelines in the minds of electors.
On a Welsh stage that is just not going to work. Half of Wales rely on English media for their news, whilst even our indigenous media will increasingly become focussed on the 'cash for peerages' affair over the coming months. At the same time, the Iraq war will continue to dominate the news agenda for some time to come.
People tend to vote for a multitude of reasons but how they generally feel about a particular party or government can be crucial. Wales Labour will not be able to distance themselves from Tony Blair in this respect and a lot of people will inevitably use the Assembly elections to lodge a protest.
All of the parties will be anxious to fight on Welsh issues and to impress people with how we intend to use the Assembly's new powers for their benefit. It is likely however, that the Assembly has not established itself clearly or strongly enough in people's minds to overcome the many other legitimate concerns they have about the direction of New Labour.
Rhodri Morgan may have a high profile, his party's strength in Wales may offer some immunity from UK trends, but in the marginal seats it could well be Iraq or how the Labour Party is funded that proves to be decisive.
On a Welsh stage that is just not going to work. Half of Wales rely on English media for their news, whilst even our indigenous media will increasingly become focussed on the 'cash for peerages' affair over the coming months. At the same time, the Iraq war will continue to dominate the news agenda for some time to come.
People tend to vote for a multitude of reasons but how they generally feel about a particular party or government can be crucial. Wales Labour will not be able to distance themselves from Tony Blair in this respect and a lot of people will inevitably use the Assembly elections to lodge a protest.
All of the parties will be anxious to fight on Welsh issues and to impress people with how we intend to use the Assembly's new powers for their benefit. It is likely however, that the Assembly has not established itself clearly or strongly enough in people's minds to overcome the many other legitimate concerns they have about the direction of New Labour.
Rhodri Morgan may have a high profile, his party's strength in Wales may offer some immunity from UK trends, but in the marginal seats it could well be Iraq or how the Labour Party is funded that proves to be decisive.
