Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Leader of the pack
Whilst speculation continues about the future of Tony Blair and just when he will be succeeded by Gordon Brown, another leadership contest gets underway in Cardiff Bay.
A special edition of ITV's Waterfront is due to go out later this month in which political correspondent, Lee Waters will speculate that the leading contenders to succeed Rhodri Morgan as Leader of the Welsh Labour Party are already manouevring for position.
He considers that it will be a straight fight between Environment Minister, Carwyn Jones and Enterprise Minister, Andrew Davies. Whoever wins could well find themselves as leader of the opposition if various plots and sub-plots going on down the Bay ever come to fruition.
Lee speculates that the other two potential leadership contenders will stand aside and seek to use their influence to become kingmakers:
He writes, "Though an impressive Minister, and well regarded within the education community, Jane Davidson does not inspire much affection within the Labour Party. Educated at Malvern Girls College, the Pontypridd AM jars with many class-conscious members of her own party. 'We would have serious problems with her' is a comment proffered by several Welsh Labour MPs who are uneasy with her passion for devolution.
"The same is said about Edwina Hart. Again, well regarded by several key interest groups, the Gower AM is frequently dismissed as having poor communications skills.
"Yet though they may not be pretenders to the throne, they may well be kingmakers. Edwina Hart is said to fancy herself as a power broker amongst the trade unions which, after all, command a third of the vote in any Labour leadership contest. However, it is questionable how much support she would be able to deliver to any candidate with whom she made a deal.
"On the other hand Jane Davidson is said to have done a deal with Carwyn Jones. Both are keen to expand the devolution settlement and it is understood that they've come to an understanding in exchange for a pledge not to fight each other. With more powers on their way to Cardiff Bay, Jane Davidson fancies herself as a Welsh Deputy First Minister."
He writes of Carwyn Jones that he is "An attractive candidate, he possesses charisma and an ability to reach beyond the core Labour vote. However he is so far untested beyond his environment and rural affairs brief.
"He had a 'good war' during the foot-and-mouth outbreak in 2001, but since then has made little impression. Though not the most promising portfolio for playing to the Labour membership, he has shown little initiative with issues like sustainable development and fair trade that fall within his brief.
"Carwyn's critics say all this is evidence of laziness. 'He doesn't put the work in,' according to a well-placed source, a sentiment echoed by civil servants and politicians with alarming consistency."
Meanwhile, Andrew Davies, who is already credited as having out-manoeuvred Carwyn once in the race to be Economic Development Minister, is described as lacking charisma:
He describes Andrew Davies as "the favoured candidate of the Welsh Labour Group of MPs".
"As a former party official he knows most of the Westminster contingent well. They see him as 'one of us'.
"There are plenty of doubters, however. The most frequent remark about him is that he lacks charisma. He is viewed as low- key, lacking in colour and personality. But it would be a mistake to underestimate him."
Mr Davies' attributes, says Mr Waters, include "sharp political elbows" and "greater depth than his opponents give him credit for".
"Perhaps his greatest worry is that he is seen as lacking natural leadership qualities.
I know that Lee has interviewed a wide range of AMs for this programme from all the political parties. I am one of them, but whether my views make the final cut has yet to be seen. Either way this contest will be decided within the Labour Party. What legacy the successful candidate will inherit from Rhodri Morgan is a whole different discussion.
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So let me get this right ...
This is one journalist writing an article about another journalists speculation on the results of a leadership election which may not takeplace for three years!
We are in the silly season with a vengance!
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This is one journalist writing an article about another journalists speculation on the results of a leadership election which may not takeplace for three years!
We are in the silly season with a vengance!
<< Home
