Thursday, June 01, 2006
First poll offers food for thought
I have thought for some time, and said so privately, that Trish Law made the wrong choice when she decided to stand for the Assembly. She must do what she believes is best of course and the chances are that she will win her husband's place in the Assembly. However, the really tough contest was always going to be the Parliamentary seat. I believe that Mrs Law could have won that contest and pulled Independent Dai Davies behind her into the Assembly. It is a much tougher job to do it the other way around.
An opinion poll published today seems to confirm those instincts. NOP put Trish Law in the lead in the race for the Assembly seat on 43%, with the Labour candidate, John Hopkins, trailing just three per cent behind. That lead is still within the margin of error of course. With four weeks to go and with Labour throwing everything they have into the constituency the outcome is far from certain.
In the case of the Parliamentary seat, the suspicions of a rift between Trish Law and Dai Davies appears to have affected the chances of the Independents. The poll puts Labour candidate Owen Smith clearly ahead by 47% to 35%. I would be astonished if Mr. Davies can catch up on that lead.
Nevertheless, the double by-elections remain an intriquing battle. They are contests that Labour are determined not to lose. If the Independents are to prevail then they really will have to pull their fingers out.
Update: A political pundit on HTV's Waterfront programme has just said that the poll indicates that Blaenau Gwent is a two horse race and that the other parties will now find their vote being squeezed. It seems to me that there is not a lot left to squeeze. The battleground for all parties now is the 40% of voters who have been identified as undecided. This is now a contest revolving around differential turnouts and in particular how successful Labour are in getting their vote out. Expect the volume of literature coming through people's doors to increase accordingly.
An opinion poll published today seems to confirm those instincts. NOP put Trish Law in the lead in the race for the Assembly seat on 43%, with the Labour candidate, John Hopkins, trailing just three per cent behind. That lead is still within the margin of error of course. With four weeks to go and with Labour throwing everything they have into the constituency the outcome is far from certain.
In the case of the Parliamentary seat, the suspicions of a rift between Trish Law and Dai Davies appears to have affected the chances of the Independents. The poll puts Labour candidate Owen Smith clearly ahead by 47% to 35%. I would be astonished if Mr. Davies can catch up on that lead.
Nevertheless, the double by-elections remain an intriquing battle. They are contests that Labour are determined not to lose. If the Independents are to prevail then they really will have to pull their fingers out.
Update: A political pundit on HTV's Waterfront programme has just said that the poll indicates that Blaenau Gwent is a two horse race and that the other parties will now find their vote being squeezed. It seems to me that there is not a lot left to squeeze. The battleground for all parties now is the 40% of voters who have been identified as undecided. This is now a contest revolving around differential turnouts and in particular how successful Labour are in getting their vote out. Expect the volume of literature coming through people's doors to increase accordingly.
