Friday, May 05, 2006
Fighting the spin
Actually, I do not think that the Liberal Democrats did all that badly last night despite the gloom and doom merchants in the media and elsewhere spinning it badly for us. It is true that we may not have met expectations but then really even the Tories did not do enough to convince anybody that they can win the next General Election. After all we made a net gain of Councils (two, if you take into account that we will continue to hold Islington on the Mayor's casting vote) and of Councillors.
All in all, the resilience of the Labour vote combined with a number of local circumstances meant that it was a better night for Blair than anybody expected and that had an impact on other parties.
So as to counter some of this spin I am taking the unprecedented step (for me) of reproducing the Liberal Democrats' analysis of the local election results:
Votes
Liberal Democrats have achieved a higher vote share than in the General Election a year ago – coming ahead of the Labour Party for only the second time.
BBC projected national share of the vote:
Conservatives 40%
Lib Dems 27%
Labour 26%
Councils
Liberal Democrats gained:
· Richmond-upon-Thames (from the Conservatives)
· South Lakeland
· St Albans
We lost overall control of Islington but we are the largest party with 50% of the seats (and will effectively retain control with the casting vote of the Mayor).
We made a net gain of one council as we also lost Milton Keynes , but we are still the largest party there.
We also won half the seats in Rochdale and became the largest party on other councils such as Oxford, Brent, Camden and Woking (where we missed overall control by two votes).
The Liberal Democrat Mayor of Watford (Dorothy Thornhill) was re-elected with 51% of the vote. Liberal Democrats now have overall control of 31 principal local authorities.
Councillors
We gained around 350 seats over the last four years – and we made a slight increase on this total yesterday (+13 according to the BBC at 1.30 pm Friday, with results from 169 out of 176 councils), taking our total number of Councillors to around 4,800.
COUNCIL RESULTS
The Liberal Democrats successfully defended overall control in 10 of our 12 councils that were up for re-election, and retained largest party status in the other two. We increased the number of councils we control by one.
Liberal Democrat GAINS
South Lakeland, from NOC, with a gain of 9 seats
St. Albans, from NOC, with a gain of 2 seats
Richmond, from Conservative, with a gain of 17 seats
Liberal Democrat HOLDS
Kingston upon Thames
Sutton
Watford
Three Rivers
Cambridge
Pendle
Liverpool
Newcastle
Eastleigh
Stockport
Liberal Democrat LOSSES
Islington, to NOC – LD retain control with 24 of the 48 seats and the casting vote of the Mayor.
Milton Keynes, to NOC – LD remain largest party
Liberal Democrat advances to largest party
Number of seats now (and gains yesterday)
Camden 20 (+13)
Brent 27 (+16)
Kingston upon Hull 26 (+4)
Woking 18 (+3)
Rochdale 30 (+3)
West Lindsey 18 (+2)
North East Lincolnshire 17 (+2)
Oxford 19 (+2)
Other significant Lib Dem advances:
Haringey 27 (+11), Lewisham 17 (+10), Warrington 25 (+4), Waltham Forest 19 (+4), Oldham 27 (+2), Worthing 14 (+3).
Tory failure in the cities
The Conservatives failed to win a single seat in:
Liverpool (where they took their entire Shadow Cabinet)
Manchester (where they took their Spring Conference)
Sheffield (where they gained seats under IDS and Michael Howard)
Cambridge (where they lost their last Councillor last night)
Oxford
Newcastle
Gateshead
Liberal Democrats believe that the Conservatives remain irrelevant in many city areas. In these areas the challenge to Labour comes from the Liberal Democrats.
Tory losses of control
The Conservatives lost control of:
· Richmond upon Thames (to the Liberal Democrats).
In addition, Liberal Democrat gains from Conservatives resulted in the Conservatives losing control of:
· Gosport
· Harrogate
· West Lindsey
KEY ISSUES
Liberal Democrats have been rated as the most trusted party to run the NHS.
Liberal Democrats 30%
Conservatives 29%
Labour 28%
Liberal Democrats have been rated as the party likely to do most to protect the environment.
Liberal Democrats 29%
Conservatives 22%
Labour 17%
Based on ICM Polls for BBC and the Guardian
All in all, the resilience of the Labour vote combined with a number of local circumstances meant that it was a better night for Blair than anybody expected and that had an impact on other parties.
So as to counter some of this spin I am taking the unprecedented step (for me) of reproducing the Liberal Democrats' analysis of the local election results:
Votes
Liberal Democrats have achieved a higher vote share than in the General Election a year ago – coming ahead of the Labour Party for only the second time.
BBC projected national share of the vote:
Conservatives 40%
Lib Dems 27%
Labour 26%
Councils
Liberal Democrats gained:
· Richmond-upon-Thames (from the Conservatives)
· South Lakeland
· St Albans
We lost overall control of Islington but we are the largest party with 50% of the seats (and will effectively retain control with the casting vote of the Mayor).
We made a net gain of one council as we also lost Milton Keynes , but we are still the largest party there.
We also won half the seats in Rochdale and became the largest party on other councils such as Oxford, Brent, Camden and Woking (where we missed overall control by two votes).
The Liberal Democrat Mayor of Watford (Dorothy Thornhill) was re-elected with 51% of the vote. Liberal Democrats now have overall control of 31 principal local authorities.
Councillors
We gained around 350 seats over the last four years – and we made a slight increase on this total yesterday (+13 according to the BBC at 1.30 pm Friday, with results from 169 out of 176 councils), taking our total number of Councillors to around 4,800.
COUNCIL RESULTS
The Liberal Democrats successfully defended overall control in 10 of our 12 councils that were up for re-election, and retained largest party status in the other two. We increased the number of councils we control by one.
Liberal Democrat GAINS
South Lakeland, from NOC, with a gain of 9 seats
St. Albans, from NOC, with a gain of 2 seats
Richmond, from Conservative, with a gain of 17 seats
Liberal Democrat HOLDS
Kingston upon Thames
Sutton
Watford
Three Rivers
Cambridge
Pendle
Liverpool
Newcastle
Eastleigh
Stockport
Liberal Democrat LOSSES
Islington, to NOC – LD retain control with 24 of the 48 seats and the casting vote of the Mayor.
Milton Keynes, to NOC – LD remain largest party
Liberal Democrat advances to largest party
Number of seats now (and gains yesterday)
Camden 20 (+13)
Brent 27 (+16)
Kingston upon Hull 26 (+4)
Woking 18 (+3)
Rochdale 30 (+3)
West Lindsey 18 (+2)
North East Lincolnshire 17 (+2)
Oxford 19 (+2)
Other significant Lib Dem advances:
Haringey 27 (+11), Lewisham 17 (+10), Warrington 25 (+4), Waltham Forest 19 (+4), Oldham 27 (+2), Worthing 14 (+3).
Tory failure in the cities
The Conservatives failed to win a single seat in:
Liverpool (where they took their entire Shadow Cabinet)
Manchester (where they took their Spring Conference)
Sheffield (where they gained seats under IDS and Michael Howard)
Cambridge (where they lost their last Councillor last night)
Oxford
Newcastle
Gateshead
Liberal Democrats believe that the Conservatives remain irrelevant in many city areas. In these areas the challenge to Labour comes from the Liberal Democrats.
Tory losses of control
The Conservatives lost control of:
· Richmond upon Thames (to the Liberal Democrats).
In addition, Liberal Democrat gains from Conservatives resulted in the Conservatives losing control of:
· Gosport
· Harrogate
· West Lindsey
KEY ISSUES
Liberal Democrats have been rated as the most trusted party to run the NHS.
Liberal Democrats 30%
Conservatives 29%
Labour 28%
Liberal Democrats have been rated as the party likely to do most to protect the environment.
Liberal Democrats 29%
Conservatives 22%
Labour 17%
Based on ICM Polls for BBC and the Guardian
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Comments:
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Lib dems also lost their minority administration in Lambeth....
In reality the Lib dems momentum has stalled on what was a very bad night for Labour and a good night for the Tories. Next years local elections in England will be the big test of the Lib dems.
Demographically the North of England is closest to Wales. The Tories made few advances and the Lib dems stalled so i guess all to play for next year.
The question for Lib dems is : After Thursdays election results are you still confident of achieving the publicly stated aim of being the main opposition party in Wales?
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In reality the Lib dems momentum has stalled on what was a very bad night for Labour and a good night for the Tories. Next years local elections in England will be the big test of the Lib dems.
Demographically the North of England is closest to Wales. The Tories made few advances and the Lib dems stalled so i guess all to play for next year.
The question for Lib dems is : After Thursdays election results are you still confident of achieving the publicly stated aim of being the main opposition party in Wales?
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