Thursday, June 02, 2005
Cuckoos
More from the Institute of Welsh Affairs' magazine, Agenda, in today's Western Mail. The paper picks up on the article that suggests that Cardiff's economic growth is damaging the rest of Wales.
Professor David Blackaby of the University of Wales, Swansea and Stephen Drinkwater of Surrey University write, "In recent years there has been a centralisation of public sector agencies and public facilities in Cardiff, such as the Millennium Stadium and Millennium Centre and of course the National Assembly, as well as the enormous investment in the Cardiff Bay regeneration project. This has led some to suggest that Cardiff has benefited far more from being our capital city than Wales has benefited from having Cardiff as its capital."
Prof Blackaby and Mr Drinkwater cite a series of statistical comparisons in support of such a case.
They say Cardiff's GVA (Gross Value Added - the standard measure of a region's income) per head is above the UK average, and has dramatically improved since 1999. Meanwhile Newport, which had been performing well between 1995 and 1999 has weakened.
Swansea has been stable, but is outperforming the whole of West Wales and the Valleys, which have declined since 1995.
The increase in skills base of the Cardiff population "has been partly achieved by the migration of the youngest and most economically productive members of the population from other areas of Wales".
They go on to argue that the concentration of growth in certain parts of the country not only damages the economy's overall growth performance but also creates social problems in the deprived areas and leads to an enormous waste of productive resources.
"Evidence reveals that inequalities are increasing in Wales. The economy is increasingly being divided along an east-west axis. There are a number of adverse economic consequences of regional economic disparities. They lead to increases in employment inequality, increases in relative inflationary pressures, and to a less than effective use of the nation's infrastructure and social capital."
Rather predictably the Welsh Assembly Government responds with the same old chestnuts. They assert that a strong capital City is fundamental to a strong economy without addressing the issue of overheating or the fact that the economic strength of Cardiff is actually an argument to use enhanced public investment to spread that prosperity to other parts of Wales and allow us to catch up.
The fact is that the perception in South West Wales (and no doubt elsewhere as well) is that Cardiff benefits more than any other part of the Country in terms of public investment. The two authors of the piece say that the answer is to spread public sector jobs around Wales and the Assembly Government in response says that by 2008 60% of Assembly staff will be based outside of Cardiff. As welcome as this is, it does seem an easy way out. Objective One monies are important too and need to keep on coming, but I think what most people would like to see is the sort of public capital investment in Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and other towns around Wales that Cardiff and the bay area in particular, has enjoyed for the best part of a decade and more.
Professor David Blackaby of the University of Wales, Swansea and Stephen Drinkwater of Surrey University write, "In recent years there has been a centralisation of public sector agencies and public facilities in Cardiff, such as the Millennium Stadium and Millennium Centre and of course the National Assembly, as well as the enormous investment in the Cardiff Bay regeneration project. This has led some to suggest that Cardiff has benefited far more from being our capital city than Wales has benefited from having Cardiff as its capital."
Prof Blackaby and Mr Drinkwater cite a series of statistical comparisons in support of such a case.
They say Cardiff's GVA (Gross Value Added - the standard measure of a region's income) per head is above the UK average, and has dramatically improved since 1999. Meanwhile Newport, which had been performing well between 1995 and 1999 has weakened.
Swansea has been stable, but is outperforming the whole of West Wales and the Valleys, which have declined since 1995.
The increase in skills base of the Cardiff population "has been partly achieved by the migration of the youngest and most economically productive members of the population from other areas of Wales".
They go on to argue that the concentration of growth in certain parts of the country not only damages the economy's overall growth performance but also creates social problems in the deprived areas and leads to an enormous waste of productive resources.
"Evidence reveals that inequalities are increasing in Wales. The economy is increasingly being divided along an east-west axis. There are a number of adverse economic consequences of regional economic disparities. They lead to increases in employment inequality, increases in relative inflationary pressures, and to a less than effective use of the nation's infrastructure and social capital."
Rather predictably the Welsh Assembly Government responds with the same old chestnuts. They assert that a strong capital City is fundamental to a strong economy without addressing the issue of overheating or the fact that the economic strength of Cardiff is actually an argument to use enhanced public investment to spread that prosperity to other parts of Wales and allow us to catch up.
The fact is that the perception in South West Wales (and no doubt elsewhere as well) is that Cardiff benefits more than any other part of the Country in terms of public investment. The two authors of the piece say that the answer is to spread public sector jobs around Wales and the Assembly Government in response says that by 2008 60% of Assembly staff will be based outside of Cardiff. As welcome as this is, it does seem an easy way out. Objective One monies are important too and need to keep on coming, but I think what most people would like to see is the sort of public capital investment in Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and other towns around Wales that Cardiff and the bay area in particular, has enjoyed for the best part of a decade and more.
