Sunday, May 01, 2005
Polls underline Labour uncertainty
Halfway through the last weekend of the General Election and the latest batch of polls show Labour's lead being eroded. It is not however, an increase in support for the Tories, which is eating into support for Tony Blair, it is the steady rise of the Liberal Democrats.
That does not mean that I have changed my mind about the nonsense that voting for the Liberal Democrats will put the Tories in, it clearly will not. What it will do is to give us a lot more Liberal Democrats MPs, produce a much reduced Labour majority and see the Tories lose seats as well.
This is reflected by two articles in today's papers. In the Observer Martin Bentham and Martin Bright report that senior Conservatives are preparing for a new leadership battle if Michael Howard fails to secure at least 200 seats for the party in Thursday's general election. The prospect of dismal failure is already starting to pervade the Tory camp.
Tory candidates know from spending the last four weeks on the doorstep that although there is real disillusion and anger at Tony Blair, nobody believes that the Tories are any better. If Labour's vote comes out at all then they will either vote grudgingly for the one-last-saloon option of another Labour Government or they will lend their vote to the Liberal Democrats , whose policy stances they have a great deal more sympathy with. Hard core Tories will vote but those crucial floating voters do not want anything to do with Howard.
The Independent underlines this prospect. They report that the final Independent on Sunday poll of the campaign shows that the Liberal Democrats, on 23 per cent, are well placed for a last-minute surge at Labour's expense.
The last few days of a campaign are crucial with regards to undecided voters. Somebody once estimated that one third of these people made their mind up on the way to the Polling station. It was the final Monday of the campaign in 1992 that saw John Major begin to claw his way back into Government, in a crucial movement of opinion that was not reflected in the polls. So it might be this time again, with the Liberal Democrats being the 2005 beneficiaries.
Alternatively, public opinion may stick where it is, still giving a remarkable boost for Charles Kennedy and my party. Such is the joy of punditry that I think I will stick to fighting elections rather than predicting their outcome. One thing is certain though, it is far more exciting than 2001.
That does not mean that I have changed my mind about the nonsense that voting for the Liberal Democrats will put the Tories in, it clearly will not. What it will do is to give us a lot more Liberal Democrats MPs, produce a much reduced Labour majority and see the Tories lose seats as well.
This is reflected by two articles in today's papers. In the Observer Martin Bentham and Martin Bright report that senior Conservatives are preparing for a new leadership battle if Michael Howard fails to secure at least 200 seats for the party in Thursday's general election. The prospect of dismal failure is already starting to pervade the Tory camp.
Tory candidates know from spending the last four weeks on the doorstep that although there is real disillusion and anger at Tony Blair, nobody believes that the Tories are any better. If Labour's vote comes out at all then they will either vote grudgingly for the one-last-saloon option of another Labour Government or they will lend their vote to the Liberal Democrats , whose policy stances they have a great deal more sympathy with. Hard core Tories will vote but those crucial floating voters do not want anything to do with Howard.
The Independent underlines this prospect. They report that the final Independent on Sunday poll of the campaign shows that the Liberal Democrats, on 23 per cent, are well placed for a last-minute surge at Labour's expense.
The last few days of a campaign are crucial with regards to undecided voters. Somebody once estimated that one third of these people made their mind up on the way to the Polling station. It was the final Monday of the campaign in 1992 that saw John Major begin to claw his way back into Government, in a crucial movement of opinion that was not reflected in the polls. So it might be this time again, with the Liberal Democrats being the 2005 beneficiaries.
Alternatively, public opinion may stick where it is, still giving a remarkable boost for Charles Kennedy and my party. Such is the joy of punditry that I think I will stick to fighting elections rather than predicting their outcome. One thing is certain though, it is far more exciting than 2001.
Comments:
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As you have asked me, I think Howard will hang on for at least a year and then be succeeded by one of his young turks.
Young turks? Now, would that be allowed under Howard's immigration regime or would we have to wait until Turkey's admitted to the EU? I see that Pope Aryan Alliance the XVI isn't too keen on Turkey joining.
Best of luck today, by the way. As most marginals are Lib/Con I can only see a high Lib vote as being completely positive.
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Best of luck today, by the way. As most marginals are Lib/Con I can only see a high Lib vote as being completely positive.
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