Thursday, May 19, 2005
Pact or coalition
This article on the possibility of a pre-election pact between the parties of the centre left at the next Assembly elections is actually quite confusing. That is because the journalist seems to treat election pacts and coalitions as interchangeable terms. They are, of course, completely different animals.
Lembit Opik is quite right to rule out an election pact in 2007. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have a distinctive message and growing support across the Country and it is only right that we continue to build on that and allow people the opportunity to vote for us. There is no dishonesty either in taking an inconclusive result and turning it into a coalition as long as people are aware that this is a possibility if they do not give one party an overall majority. That is the reality of PR and even, in increasing frequency, first past the post nowadays.
The question I have about Adam Price's contention that a pact between Welsh Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru could win 32 seats, is how did he arrive at that figure? There is no evidence whatsoever that such an alliance could generate that much support other than that engendered by the instincts of Mr. Price. As the instincts of Plaid Cymru politicians vis-a-vis Ceredigion and Ynys Mon, have proved distinctly shaky as of late then I do not think we will be trusting them this time either.
Lembit Opik is quite right to rule out an election pact in 2007. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have a distinctive message and growing support across the Country and it is only right that we continue to build on that and allow people the opportunity to vote for us. There is no dishonesty either in taking an inconclusive result and turning it into a coalition as long as people are aware that this is a possibility if they do not give one party an overall majority. That is the reality of PR and even, in increasing frequency, first past the post nowadays.
The question I have about Adam Price's contention that a pact between Welsh Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru could win 32 seats, is how did he arrive at that figure? There is no evidence whatsoever that such an alliance could generate that much support other than that engendered by the instincts of Mr. Price. As the instincts of Plaid Cymru politicians vis-a-vis Ceredigion and Ynys Mon, have proved distinctly shaky as of late then I do not think we will be trusting them this time either.
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An interesting political diatribe David. Shame most of it is misplaced.
Firstly, the Liberal Democrats manifesto did not propose abolishing the New Deal but reforming it. Yes, we were opposed to baby bonds. We wanted to see the money invested in early years education where it would have the most impact instead. As for raising the minimum wage we supported the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission, which questioned the two year deal to increase the minimum wage at a time of economic uncertainty. We were most probably wrong on that one.
You forget of course that Ceredigion has always been a Liberal heartland. We have been in direct conflict with Plaid here since they won it in 1992. Whether PLaid and the Liberal Democrats work together in a future Assembly will have nothing to do with Ceredigion but whether agreement could be reached on a joint policy platform.
If the General Election result were repeated in 2007 we would win a significant number of additional Assembly seats including two in South Wales West, most probably Swansea West plus a list seat. We realistically expect to win more than one extra Assembly seat in two years time.
It is nice to see the Swans going up and the Ospreys winning too. It is also nice to see Wales win the Grand Slam. Although I did comment on all of Wales' Grand Slam matches, essentially this is a political blog not a sporting one. I say what I feel like on the day not what you expect me to put on here.
Firstly, the Liberal Democrats manifesto did not propose abolishing the New Deal but reforming it. Yes, we were opposed to baby bonds. We wanted to see the money invested in early years education where it would have the most impact instead. As for raising the minimum wage we supported the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission, which questioned the two year deal to increase the minimum wage at a time of economic uncertainty. We were most probably wrong on that one.
You forget of course that Ceredigion has always been a Liberal heartland. We have been in direct conflict with Plaid here since they won it in 1992. Whether PLaid and the Liberal Democrats work together in a future Assembly will have nothing to do with Ceredigion but whether agreement could be reached on a joint policy platform.
If the General Election result were repeated in 2007 we would win a significant number of additional Assembly seats including two in South Wales West, most probably Swansea West plus a list seat. We realistically expect to win more than one extra Assembly seat in two years time.
It is nice to see the Swans going up and the Ospreys winning too. It is also nice to see Wales win the Grand Slam. Although I did comment on all of Wales' Grand Slam matches, essentially this is a political blog not a sporting one. I say what I feel like on the day not what you expect me to put on here.
Not sure what the draft manifesto said but the actual manifesto is the authorative document on policy matters.
If the GE result from 2008 were repeated exactly then we would just miss out on Swansea West. However, as there is a different dynamic as a result of that election then we are in a position to win it in 2007.
Assuming that the GE vote is replicated in the Assembly elections then the Welsh Liberal Democrats would win 2 seats, either two list or, if we succeeded in improving on our performance Swansea West plus a list seat. Labour would not gain a list seat if it lost Swansea West on the 2005 vote share. My calculations are as follows:
Labour 119,693 7 seats 17,099 7
Lib Dem 44,830 1 seat 22,415 1 seat 14,943.5 2
Tory 39,801 1 seat 19,900.5 1
Plaid 21,700 1 seat 10,850 1
Green 4,023 0
UKIP 2,429 0
Bet it doesnt format properly!
If the GE result from 2008 were repeated exactly then we would just miss out on Swansea West. However, as there is a different dynamic as a result of that election then we are in a position to win it in 2007.
Assuming that the GE vote is replicated in the Assembly elections then the Welsh Liberal Democrats would win 2 seats, either two list or, if we succeeded in improving on our performance Swansea West plus a list seat. Labour would not gain a list seat if it lost Swansea West on the 2005 vote share. My calculations are as follows:
Labour 119,693 7 seats 17,099 7
Lib Dem 44,830 1 seat 22,415 1 seat 14,943.5 2
Tory 39,801 1 seat 19,900.5 1
Plaid 21,700 1 seat 10,850 1
Green 4,023 0
UKIP 2,429 0
Bet it doesnt format properly!
I am not extrapolating any result and certainly not for the Liberals, who are a different party to mine. If you re-read what I said then you will see that I am arguing that the result puts us in a position to win Swansea West in 2007.
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