Sunday, April 03, 2005
What are the facts?
An article in the Observer draws my attention to an interesting website being run by Channel Four. It purports to cut through the party political propaganda so as to give us the real facts. It can be found here. I am sure that it will prove a popular destination for voters and party hacks alike in the next five weeks.
One of the articles on this site provides more information for my post from 1 April on Tory advertising and their propensity to score own goals. In adverts in local papers the Conservatives are claiming that the number of violent offences are up 260 per cent in Hertfordshire since 1998-99, in Thames Valley by 150 per cent and in rural North Wales by 128 per cent. The Metropolitan Police and Northumbria have also been targeted.
However, Channel 4 list a number of changes to the way that statistics have been compiled to illustrate that the Tories have been very economical with the truth. They conclude that:
An alternative source of information is the British Crime Survey (BCS). And this suggests that violent crime is actually falling.
The total number of violent crimes across the whole country recorded by the BCS has gone down from 3,247,000 in 1999 to 2,708,000 in 2004.
The British Crime Survey is by no means a perfect source, particularly for violent crimes. It excludes homicides and all crimes against the under 16s, while sexual offences are underreported.
However, the fact that the BCS suggests crime has fallen does raise further question marks over the steep rises referred to in the Tory ads.
Now, it is not my job to defend the Government against Tory attacks, but it does seem to me that if we stick to the facts rather than engage in spin and misrepresentation then the whole electoral process will benefit and we might even begin to encourage people to start trusting politicians once more. This is going to be an interesting site to keep monitoring.
One of the articles on this site provides more information for my post from 1 April on Tory advertising and their propensity to score own goals. In adverts in local papers the Conservatives are claiming that the number of violent offences are up 260 per cent in Hertfordshire since 1998-99, in Thames Valley by 150 per cent and in rural North Wales by 128 per cent. The Metropolitan Police and Northumbria have also been targeted.
However, Channel 4 list a number of changes to the way that statistics have been compiled to illustrate that the Tories have been very economical with the truth. They conclude that:
An alternative source of information is the British Crime Survey (BCS). And this suggests that violent crime is actually falling.
The total number of violent crimes across the whole country recorded by the BCS has gone down from 3,247,000 in 1999 to 2,708,000 in 2004.
The British Crime Survey is by no means a perfect source, particularly for violent crimes. It excludes homicides and all crimes against the under 16s, while sexual offences are underreported.
However, the fact that the BCS suggests crime has fallen does raise further question marks over the steep rises referred to in the Tory ads.
Now, it is not my job to defend the Government against Tory attacks, but it does seem to me that if we stick to the facts rather than engage in spin and misrepresentation then the whole electoral process will benefit and we might even begin to encourage people to start trusting politicians once more. This is going to be an interesting site to keep monitoring.
