Wednesday, April 27, 2005
Fighting in the marginals
I have commented before that it is no accident that private polls are leaked from Labour Headquarters, especially if they will help to reinforce the message being propagated by Ministers that the election is not in the bag after all. I notice, however, that they have now dropped all pretence of polls being leaked and are just releasing them to the media as a matter of course. In doing so they continue to release only those polls that will reinforce their message.
This latest poll is quite intriquing as it indicates that in key marginal seats Labour are struggling to hold on against a concerted Liberal Democrat and Tory challenge. These are the seats of course, in which the opposition parties are concentrating most of their resources.
I think it is unlikely that this activity will deny Labour their overall majority but it may reduce it sufficiently to at least make them moderate their behaviour and their policies. Most people would consider this a good outcome and may be encouraged to continue to vote against Labour in these marginals just to secure that greater accountability. A significantly reduced Labour majority for example could put paid to ID cards and would almost certainly prevent the Prime Minister following George Bush into another pre-emptive war, this time against Iran.
The other interesting aspect of this article is the evidence from Mori on differential turnout. They now predict that 80% of Tory voters are now certain to vote, compared with 71% a week ago. Labour's comparable figure is 64%, against 66% last week. If that is correct then Labour really do have something to worry about.
This latest poll is quite intriquing as it indicates that in key marginal seats Labour are struggling to hold on against a concerted Liberal Democrat and Tory challenge. These are the seats of course, in which the opposition parties are concentrating most of their resources.
I think it is unlikely that this activity will deny Labour their overall majority but it may reduce it sufficiently to at least make them moderate their behaviour and their policies. Most people would consider this a good outcome and may be encouraged to continue to vote against Labour in these marginals just to secure that greater accountability. A significantly reduced Labour majority for example could put paid to ID cards and would almost certainly prevent the Prime Minister following George Bush into another pre-emptive war, this time against Iran.
The other interesting aspect of this article is the evidence from Mori on differential turnout. They now predict that 80% of Tory voters are now certain to vote, compared with 71% a week ago. Labour's comparable figure is 64%, against 66% last week. If that is correct then Labour really do have something to worry about.
