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Sunday, January 16, 2005

Faltering Tories hit the rocks

If Black Wednesday was a defining moment that marked the inevitable collapse of John Major's Government, then yesterday may well go down as Michael Howard's equivalent. Somehow though, I think that things will not be so clear cut and that although the Conservatives will lose badly in the General Election, the appalling opinion poll results for them yesterday and the defection of retiring Wantage MP, Robert Jackson, are not so much turning points but markers on a long slippery slope that started on that day on 16 September 1992.

Like Nick Barlow I will enjoy seeing the Conservatives secure their worse result since 1906, however I am not so enamoured of the predicted 160 majority for Tony Blair, nor do I believe that the Country is prepared to trust the Prime Minister to this extent. As with my prediction that Germaine Greer will win Celebrity Big Brother last week, I may be proved wrong, but there is still a lot to play for and opinion polls such as these can be misleading.

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