Tuesday, January 18, 2005
Breaking free
Yet another article in the Western Mail on the grand coalition idea for the National Assembly. This time they are reporting the views of the Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs. He believes that Labour will do significantly worse at the Assembly elections in 2007 than they did in 2003. He gives six reasons for this:
Welsh Labour will have been in power in Wales for two terms and many voters will be looking for a change;
At the UK level, Labour will likely be mid-way through its third term with frustration and disillusion mounting;
The economic climate is unlikely to be as it was in 2003, when Labour benefited from a full term of stable growth, rising public expenditure and low interest rates;
Boundary changes in North Wales are likely to work to Labour's disadvantage, making Conwy more marginal in Plaid's favour;
In the coming general election the Tories can expect to pick up a number of seats in Wales - Monmouth, Clwyd West and perhaps Cardiff North. As a result they will be well placed to sustain the significant advance they made in the 2003 Assembly elections;
The Liberal Democrats can be expected to at least sustain their overall share of the vote while Plaid has an opportunity to recover some of the losses it suffered in 2003.
There are a lot of variables there of course but there are even more in the assumptions that Mr. Osmond makes as to why a grand coalition is possible. The biggest question mark, as I have said before, is whether a common policy platform can be agreed. Mr. Osmond believes that this should not be too difficult and suggests a number of areas where we might agree.
I am sure that if you narrow the parameters of any policy enough then it is possible to get cross-party agreement on it. However, having served in one coalition it seems to me that the biggest obstacle to any co-operation lies in the areas where you do not agree. It is not possible to continually ignore those nor to prevent one party holding the whole partnership to ransom over a matter of principle at some stage or another. Where there is a common approach to politics, say from the left or the right, then it is possible to work around these difficulties, but when there is a wide ideological range of views within a Partnership Government then inevitably those differences will be its undoing.
Welsh Labour will have been in power in Wales for two terms and many voters will be looking for a change;
At the UK level, Labour will likely be mid-way through its third term with frustration and disillusion mounting;
The economic climate is unlikely to be as it was in 2003, when Labour benefited from a full term of stable growth, rising public expenditure and low interest rates;
Boundary changes in North Wales are likely to work to Labour's disadvantage, making Conwy more marginal in Plaid's favour;
In the coming general election the Tories can expect to pick up a number of seats in Wales - Monmouth, Clwyd West and perhaps Cardiff North. As a result they will be well placed to sustain the significant advance they made in the 2003 Assembly elections;
The Liberal Democrats can be expected to at least sustain their overall share of the vote while Plaid has an opportunity to recover some of the losses it suffered in 2003.
There are a lot of variables there of course but there are even more in the assumptions that Mr. Osmond makes as to why a grand coalition is possible. The biggest question mark, as I have said before, is whether a common policy platform can be agreed. Mr. Osmond believes that this should not be too difficult and suggests a number of areas where we might agree.
I am sure that if you narrow the parameters of any policy enough then it is possible to get cross-party agreement on it. However, having served in one coalition it seems to me that the biggest obstacle to any co-operation lies in the areas where you do not agree. It is not possible to continually ignore those nor to prevent one party holding the whole partnership to ransom over a matter of principle at some stage or another. Where there is a common approach to politics, say from the left or the right, then it is possible to work around these difficulties, but when there is a wide ideological range of views within a Partnership Government then inevitably those differences will be its undoing.
Comments:
'People are happy with their Labour Governments, both in Cardiff Bay and Westminster'
I'm a lifelong Labour voter. Labour in Wales has been a dreadful mismanager of - for example - the NHS (would David Taylor take issue with that?)
I just don't know if I can vote for anyone else. To suggest that anyone's 'happy' with this rubbish is to seriously misunderstand the situation.
The really fantastic news from David Taylor appears to be our impending immortality. According to him,
'cancer deaths have fallen by 12 per cent and deaths from heart disease are down by 27 per cent'
So what is everyone dying from these days? Falling off cliffs?
Mr Taylor - I simply didn't understand the statistics you cited. If deaths from cancer and heart disease are down, what is killing people instead? Perhaps you mean, for example, that young-age deaths from treatable cancers are down, and these people will die later, from cancer, after another 50 years enjoyable life.
If you'd care to link to an original source and let me read the original stats, that would be useful.
I assume you're familiar with the original source and/or could explain the stats to me? Surely it wouldn't be a verbatim lift from an LP email or party circular that you don't quite understand now you're obliged to think about what you've written?
Post a Comment
<< Home
You will note that these points are not mine and I stated that there were a lot of variables there. I do not agree with everything you say David but I do agree that it is too early to be making these sort of assumptions.
'People are happy with their Labour Governments, both in Cardiff Bay and Westminster'
I'm a lifelong Labour voter. Labour in Wales has been a dreadful mismanager of - for example - the NHS (would David Taylor take issue with that?)
I just don't know if I can vote for anyone else. To suggest that anyone's 'happy' with this rubbish is to seriously misunderstand the situation.
I was just thinking on the way home this evening that maybe David Taylor needs to re-start his own blog. At least then he wouldn't be using my comments section for Labour Party propaganda :-))
The really fantastic news from David Taylor appears to be our impending immortality. According to him,
'cancer deaths have fallen by 12 per cent and deaths from heart disease are down by 27 per cent'
So what is everyone dying from these days? Falling off cliffs?
"Get some perspective both of you, there is nothing to be gained by knocking the Government constantly."
I look forward to you applying the same principle to the Liberal Democrats David.
I look forward to you applying the same principle to the Liberal Democrats David.
Mr Taylor - I simply didn't understand the statistics you cited. If deaths from cancer and heart disease are down, what is killing people instead? Perhaps you mean, for example, that young-age deaths from treatable cancers are down, and these people will die later, from cancer, after another 50 years enjoyable life.
If you'd care to link to an original source and let me read the original stats, that would be useful.
I assume you're familiar with the original source and/or could explain the stats to me? Surely it wouldn't be a verbatim lift from an LP email or party circular that you don't quite understand now you're obliged to think about what you've written?
<< Home
