Friday, October 22, 2004
October surprise
With the U.S. Presidential election poised on a knife edge (the latest state polls indicate a dead heat in the electoral college - 264 to 264 with the remaining votes too close to call) everybody is waiting for the October surprise, the event that will swing people behind the incumbent.
It is possible that Tony Blair and his New Labour Government provided that moment yesterday. Their decision to send 850 service personnel from the Black Watch to support the American forces has given succour to George Bush and enabled him to contest allegations from the Democrats that America is isolated over his policy on Iraq and that American troops are taking all the hits on behalf of the coalition. If Bush now starts to edge ahead of Kerry and ultimately wins next month then he will owe a great personal debt to Tony Blair. It is no wonder that Labour backbenchers are restless.
It is possible that Tony Blair and his New Labour Government provided that moment yesterday. Their decision to send 850 service personnel from the Black Watch to support the American forces has given succour to George Bush and enabled him to contest allegations from the Democrats that America is isolated over his policy on Iraq and that American troops are taking all the hits on behalf of the coalition. If Bush now starts to edge ahead of Kerry and ultimately wins next month then he will owe a great personal debt to Tony Blair. It is no wonder that Labour backbenchers are restless.
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My argument is that the deployment is being made for political reasons and that it has political consequences.
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