Labour MPs under threat

The Guardian reports that Labour face a wake-up call with a least 80 of their MPs at risk of losing their majorities over proposed welfare cuts. Fears have been prompted by data shared between Labour MPs who are warning the government that the changes “pose a real electoral risk”.

The paper says that the analysis suggests almost 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of recipients of personal independent payments in their constituencies – a significant number in northern England “red wall” seats:

Not all of those recipients will be affected by the changes – but more than 80 Labour MPs have a majority which is smaller than the number of disabled people who could see their benefits cuts.

MPs say an organising campaign to oppose welfare changes is stepping up coordinated action over the Easter recess, with a vote now expected in June.

Rebels believe they may be able to secure as many as 50 MPs to vote against the changes. One MP who opposes the changes said party whips had been suggesting some uneasy MPs may be quietly allowed to abstain on the vote.

A number of disaffected but loyalist MPs who do not want to rebel have been encouraging a campaign of personal letter-writing directly to Keir Starmer to urge changes to the cuts or pledges of more action to tackle poverty in advance of the vote, saying it was “pointless” to lobby the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

More hardline MPs are planning a mass public intervention in the weeks after parliament returns, the Guardian has been told.

The Office of Budget Responsibility has suggested about 52% of current claimants do not score high enough on their current assessment to remain eligible for Pip, though many would be likely to challenge the reassessment.

Cabinet and senior ministers are among those who have smaller majorities than the number of constituents expected to be affected by the changes.

They include the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and health secretary, Wes Streeting, as well as the safeguarding minister, Jess Phillips, education minister, Nia Griffith, and homelessness minister, Rushanara Ali.

The list also includes high-profile MPs who are vulnerable to Reform, such as the Barnsley South MP, Stephanie Peacock, Rotherham MP, Sarah Champion, Kingston upon Hull East MP, Karl Turner, and Grimsby MP, Melanie Onn.

Some MPs with healthy majorities could be at risk, the data shows. In Easington, where Grahame Morris has a majority of more than 6,000 over Reform, there are more than 12,600 Pip claimants. In Huddersfield, Harpreet Uppal has a majority of more than 4,500 over the Greens, but 9,387 Pip claimants.

MPs are also warning that family members of claimants are also likely to be affected significantly or feel very strongly about the cuts – meaning the ripple effect could be much greater. The data also shows the sheer numbers of voters in Labour constituencies – even with large majorities – where people receive Pip. In some Labour constituencies, including Easington, Blaenau Gwent and Aberafan and Maesteg, one in five of the working-age population receive Pip payments.

This also impacts Swansea West, where I live. Here, in the seat of the pensions minister, Torsten Bell, one in six people receive Pip. No wonder disabled constituents are anxious to meet him and get an explanation for the cuts.