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Thursday, May 23, 2024

Has Sunak saved Gething?

If there was one thing that Welsh First MInister, Vaughan Gething needed, it was a distraction, something to take his own party's mind off the dodgy donation scandal, the deleted WhatsApp messages, the failed trip to India to meet Tata executives who had just returned from London, and the sacking of a Minister over disputed evidence of a leak.

And now he has it; a general election in which nobody in Welsh Labour will want to rock the boat too much in case they disrupt the campaign.

Of course, none of this will stop the opposition focussing on all the problems and issues in an attempt to embarrass Keir Starmer, especially when he ventures across the Severn Bridge into Wales, but, to use an analogy, there is a difference between being under fire in peacetime and having to defend your positions in a war.

Labour MSs may well not want to demoralise the troops anymore than they have to by triggering a leadership contest in the run up to a General Election..

That leaves Gething hoping that by the time Starmer has crossed the threshold of number ten Downing Street in triumph, those calling for his head will have discharged all their ammunition, and it will be all forgotten and forgiven within his own group.

The unknown factor in this is Keir Starmer, himself. Just how ruthless is he? Will he make the same judgement as the Labour group in Cardiff Bay and leave things alone until after 4th July, or will he decide that the embarrassment factor is too much in the middle of an election and push his protégé under a virtual bus?

My betting is on the former, in which case it looks like Rishi Sunak has saved Vaughan Gething's bacon. I hope he sends the Tory PM a thank you card.

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