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Monday, February 12, 2018

A no deal Brexit in monetary terms

The Independent reports that further study of the Government's leaked analysis of the consequences of leaving the European Union has concluded that the British economy will suffer a £252bn hit if Theresa May carries out her threat to leave the European Union with no deal.

They say that the study concludes that a no-deal Brexit would see GDP plunge by more than a quarter of a trillion pounds over 15 years. Less damaging exit terms, under which Britain would secure a free trade agreement with the rest of the EU, would still result in national output being £131bn lower over the same period. But even a Government U-turn, leaving the UK in the EU single market and customs union, would swipe £52bn from economic growth:

The Best for Britain Group, which is campaigning to halt Brexit, said its research – based on the Government’s own leaked analysis – fully exposed the “Brexit black hole at heart of the economy”.

“Sadly, now we are seeing the economic analysis becoming project fact and it means that we are facing a massive Brexit blow,” said Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, the organisation’s chairman.

“Losing billions means we will have less cash for the NHS, our schools and our public services. This all shows the best option for communities up and down the country is to stay in and keep the deal we have.”

Sadly, none of this will be enough to convince those who voted to leave the EU to change their minds. It is almost as if they believe that the impending economic crisis will not affect them.
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