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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Are demographic trends killing off the Tory Party?

The Independent carries an interesting theory postulated by the former Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine. He has warned that the Conservative Party's electoral base is dying off at a rate of 2 per cent a year.

The 84-year-old’s comments come weeks after the Tory party failed to achieve an overall majority in Parliament while Labour enjoyed a gain of more than 30 seats, defying the polls and commentators.

“One thing which is just worth having in mind, and you can't do anything about it, 2 per cent of the older part of the electorate die every year - they are 70 per cent Conservative,” Lord Heseltine told Sky News. ”Another 2 per cent come in at the young end of the electorate - they are about 70 per cent Labour. That's about 2 per cent change each year. There isn't that much time.“

This is an extreme example of a core vote strategy but is of course flawed as it assumes that the age split in the recent General Election in which most of the under-55s voted Labour and those over-55 backed the Tories, is set in stone.

It does however reveal a certain mindset within the Tory Party, specifically where they think their support lies and what factors are taken into account when designing their manifesto and governing the country.

It is little wonder that the Tories are opposed to lowering the voting age to 16.
I love this idea.2% Tory decline ok. 2% Labour bad.The young want to change the world, come fresh to it AND are more educated than previous generations. We should sell the party to them as the future. Labour like the Tories are yesterday, we are the new on the block. and should really go for it.
Jo Swinson as deputy should be given the portfolio campaigning for the young vote (18 to 40s) Lamb or Cable the wise wisdom bit (older end)assuming the latter 2 stand and win. By going for the younger end we can influence them before they get 'old' and they can steer future policy.
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