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Wednesday, May 24, 2006

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The Western Mail today reports that the Plaid Cymru selection meeting for South Wales West was attended by 89 members. Sixty two of them voted to re-select Dr. Dai Lloyd, 14 voted for Bethan Jenkins. As Plaid Cymru operate a rule that all regional lists shall be headed up by a women then Bethan Jenkins will be placed above Dai Lloyd on the ballot paper. Dai is now faced with an uphill struggle to retain his seat in the face of declining support for the nationalists. All very worthy I am sure but poor Dai cannot be too happy about the outcome.

I am a bit surprised by your comments on this. The only way Dai could be at threat is from a Lib Dem challenge. However if the Lib dems are set to win Swansea West there is no chance of them getting two regional seats as well. Does this mean the Lib dems now accept they wont win swansea West?

Keep an eye on politicalbetting.com over the weekend as I may have an article about next years Welsh assembly elections ....I expect you may disagree with its conclusions!
If this is an indication of the quality of your article then you may need to revisit it. The fifth placed candidate in the 2003 list election in South Wales West was a Tory, we were sixth. On the basis of the General Election result it is quite clear that the fourth regional seat is a three way contest between Lib Dems, Tories and Plaid. We are very confident of doing very well in Swansea West, in which case it is the Tories Dai needs to worry about.
So it seems that Dai is under even less threat than I thought. The Tories did relatively well in 2003. There is no evidence of a "Cameron" effect spreading much outside the SE of England and I doubt the Tories will do all that much better than in 2003. My analysis is partly based on comments made by yourself and other Lib dems who talked of winning two seats in this region.
Though Dai himself is worried
No doubt but most people defending seats are nervous....makes them work that much harder...

shame about the Swans....
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