The humiliation of Theresa May

There was a certain inevitability about Theresa May's humiliation at the yesterday's Salzburg summit. Not only has she been handed an impossible negotiating position by the hard-line Brexiteers in her party, who somehow believe that they can still deliver on the lies and half-thought through promises that won them the referendum, but she has destroyed her own room for manoeuvre within the Conservative Party by her ill-advised dash for a majority in the 2017 General Election.

She has also suffered from her own naivety and failure to understand the red lines of her opponents within the EU, who have created a single market which benefits all of them (and the UK too, if only we would realise that) and do not wish to give that up easily. Why would they allow the UK to leave that arrangement and then benefit from it afterwards? To do so would undermine the whole rationale behind the single market apparatus and lead to its inevitable collapse.

The Guardian quotes the Transport Secretary as saying that the EU’s demands on Northern Ireland are “impossible” for the UK to accept. And yet the Good Friday agreement, which the UK Government brokered and signed up to, leaves the EU with no choice but to insist on keeping the Northern Ireland border open. Why do Government Ministers think that there can be any other settlement?

As a result the Chequers agreement is unworkable and unacceptable. It proposes the UK shares a common rulebook for goods and services after Brexit in an attempt to prevent a return of customs checks for goods crossing the Irish border. But the EU leaders believe it will undermine the single market by giving British companies a competitive advantage and pose a threat to the “European project”.

French President Macron is absolutely right when he accuses British Brexiters of lying about how easy it would be to negotiate an exit from the EU on terms favourable to the UK:

“Those who explain that we can easily live without Europe, that everything is going to be alright, and that it’s going to bring a lot of money home are liars,” said Macron. “It’s even more true since they left the day after so as not to have to deal with it.”

Where we go now is a big question. Can May create room within her government to offer more concessions to the EU? Can she find an acceptable solution for Northern Ireland? And if she can't will she be forced to put a 'no deal exit' before Parliament, and see it voted down?

The immediate question though is whether Theresa May can even survive her party's conference? At present a General Election is looking far more likely than a third referendum on EU membership.